Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


Return to catchment list
Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Aug11.82510.15713.7130.4548.95333.768
Aug-Sep22.38916.76119.9300.71717.47148.129
Aug-Oct30.62519.98623.5800.76321.06573.447

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1057.40058.807
2048.54547.744
3042.16940.480
4036.53533.691
5031.72527.823
6027.33421.693
7022.77316.292
8017.45810.972
9011.6695.769

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
181.02886.695
274.30677.828
369.47474.344
467.10671.474
564.77669.343
662.89366.368
761.23864.267
859.95262.292
958.50960.308
1057.40058.807
1156.29057.553
1255.34756.159
1354.15855.093
1453.18454.017
1552.44652.825
1651.73751.870
1750.66650.746
1850.15849.589
1949.34748.561
2048.54547.744
2147.65446.949
2247.10946.056
2346.53545.427
2445.74444.502
2544.92743.918
2644.33543.412
2743.89942.636
2843.25042.015
2942.76041.288
3042.16940.480
3141.56639.734
3241.00338.970
3340.54838.361
3439.75637.756
3539.15636.919
3638.47136.243
3737.99035.563
3837.45334.923
3936.99434.393
4036.53533.691
4136.09233.006
4235.68732.495
4335.19232.061
4434.71731.460
4534.29230.917
4633.76030.303
4733.41029.742
4832.69629.003
4932.23828.438
5031.72527.823
5131.31727.261
5231.01026.694
5330.59726.025
5430.05725.380
5529.73124.720
5629.30023.912
5728.69923.432
5828.22122.943
5927.73922.404
6027.33421.693
6126.93020.977
6226.42220.452
6326.01219.960
6425.47419.353
6525.11318.879
6624.57618.393
6724.15017.939
6823.68617.344
6923.22116.732
7022.77316.292
7122.28415.689
7221.69615.206
7321.15214.640
7420.69214.136
7520.22713.579
7619.79013.083
7719.17412.545
7818.59212.051
7917.98011.582
8017.45810.972
8116.89610.405
8216.4339.873
8315.9029.279
8415.3798.789
8514.7978.371
8614.2527.819
8713.6857.263
8813.1146.827
8912.4556.317
9011.6695.769
9111.0465.276
9210.4784.717
939.8724.153
949.1623.508
958.5313.076
967.6142.610
976.7481.993
985.3991.522
993.8071.043


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence