Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Oct8.2363.2253.6500.0463.59438.392
Oct-Nov12.4474.9025.4830.0546.66147.277
Oct-Dec15.3275.7776.7460.05510.19452.260

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.88334.415
2016.47325.826
3013.36620.359
4011.08415.536
509.30511.750
607.7238.320
706.2735.787
804.7963.683
903.1491.863

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.67056.384
230.09849.386
328.05846.638
426.41044.375
524.93442.696
623.95540.354
723.02938.700
822.18837.148
921.51835.591
1020.88334.415
1120.39133.434
1219.83932.344
1319.41431.512
1418.83930.674
1518.41129.747
1617.89929.006
1717.45428.136
1817.12227.243
1916.81726.453
2016.47325.826
2116.14925.218
2215.83424.537
2315.40524.059
2415.11323.359
2514.85022.919
2614.48622.539
2714.21921.958
2813.96421.495
2913.70120.955
3013.36620.359
3113.08019.812
3212.87819.255
3312.62318.815
3412.42718.380
3512.26117.783
3612.01917.304
3711.82716.827
3811.56216.382
3911.32016.016
4011.08415.536
4110.91815.073
4210.73114.730
4310.54214.441
4410.33814.046
4510.17313.692
469.99613.296
479.81112.939
489.63712.475
499.44612.125
509.30511.750
519.16211.411
528.96711.074
538.79910.683
548.63610.312
558.4999.940
568.3439.493
578.1779.233
588.0528.971
597.8878.687
607.7238.320
617.5677.958
627.4387.698
637.3287.458
647.1757.168
657.0156.945
666.8496.720
676.6896.512
686.5536.246
696.4225.977
706.2735.787
716.1455.531
726.0115.329
735.8535.097
745.7104.894
755.5324.672
765.3924.478
775.2494.271
785.0924.084
794.9393.908
804.7963.683
814.6233.476
824.4603.285
834.3353.073
844.1472.901
854.0242.755
863.8612.564
873.6982.373
883.5292.224
893.3332.050
903.1491.863
912.9601.696
922.8051.506
932.6321.313
942.5021.092
952.3000.942
962.0880.779
971.7780.558
981.4770.385
991.1040.203


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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