Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov4.2111.6771.8330.0083.06710.036
Nov-Dec7.0902.5523.0950.0096.60032.976
Nov-Jan8.3712.7043.4410.0098.12044.068

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.32420.232
207.98113.501
306.4829.971
405.3687.335
504.5235.516
603.8053.989
703.1322.880
802.4111.921
901.6741.004

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.82641.416
216.17034.341
314.61631.616
413.69029.404
512.92027.787
612.25725.572
711.69824.042
811.20822.634
910.75821.253
1010.32420.232
119.99019.397
129.67018.488
139.43017.807
149.19617.134
158.99216.404
168.77315.833
178.53615.175
188.36414.515
198.15913.944
207.98113.501
217.82713.078
227.69612.614
237.49112.294
247.34811.833
257.15611.549
267.02711.306
276.87110.941
286.74110.655
296.60610.327
306.4829.971
316.3419.651
326.2369.331
336.1049.082
346.0268.839
355.8968.512
365.7728.254
375.6718.001
385.5777.768
395.4557.579
405.3687.335
415.2757.102
425.2006.931
435.1306.790
445.0576.597
454.9466.426
464.8636.237
474.7756.068
484.6985.851
494.6065.689
504.5235.516
514.4405.362
524.3635.209
534.2915.033
544.2134.867
554.1334.701
564.0744.504
574.0064.389
583.9474.274
593.8874.150
603.8053.989
613.7333.831
623.6593.718
633.5983.613
643.5213.486
653.4683.389
663.4133.291
673.3443.200
683.2633.083
693.2022.964
703.1322.880
713.0642.766
722.9892.676
732.9142.572
742.8362.481
752.7752.380
762.6992.292
772.6352.196
782.5602.109
792.4862.027
802.4111.921
812.3311.823
822.2651.731
832.1771.628
842.1151.542
852.0571.470
861.9761.373
871.9001.275
881.8341.197
891.7551.105
901.6741.004
911.5900.912
921.4930.805
931.3940.693
941.2750.560
951.1650.466
961.0440.361
970.9040.212
980.7270.086
990.5520.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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