Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Jan1.1220.1110.4820.0000.4115.629
Jan-Feb1.7320.1181.0800.0001.1298.409
Jan-Mar2.1310.1182.5190.0001.23410.898

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.7875.538
201.1513.456
300.8292.395
400.6211.643
500.4691.157
600.3540.776
700.2480.520
800.1540.315
900.0650.137

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.60511.908
23.7459.816
33.0639.003
42.7428.339
52.4647.851
62.2677.178
72.1246.711
82.0206.279
91.8945.854
101.7875.538
111.6695.280
121.5894.998
131.5144.787
141.4584.578
151.3964.352
161.3434.175
171.2923.972
181.2363.768
191.1943.592
201.1513.456
211.1133.327
221.0803.186
231.0393.088
241.0122.949
250.9742.863
260.9372.791
270.9092.682
280.8832.596
290.8572.499
300.8292.395
310.8062.301
320.7812.208
330.7622.136
340.7372.066
350.7151.972
360.6941.899
370.6771.828
380.6591.763
390.6391.710
400.6211.643
410.6021.579
420.5861.532
430.5691.494
440.5531.442
450.5371.396
460.5241.346
470.5111.301
480.4981.244
490.4831.202
500.4691.157
510.4541.117
520.4421.078
530.4281.033
540.4170.992
550.4060.950
560.3960.901
570.3820.873
580.3720.845
590.3640.815
600.3540.776
610.3420.739
620.3290.712
630.3200.687
640.3090.658
650.2990.635
660.2880.613
670.2770.592
680.2680.565
690.2590.539
700.2480.520
710.2400.495
720.2300.475
730.2200.452
740.2120.432
750.2010.411
760.1910.392
770.1820.372
780.1720.354
790.1620.337
800.1540.315
810.1460.295
820.1350.276
830.1250.256
840.1140.239
850.1070.225
860.1010.206
870.0910.187
880.0820.173
890.0730.156
900.0650.137
910.0580.120
920.0480.101
930.0400.082
940.0280.059
950.0160.044
960.0030.027
970.0000.003
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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