Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Jan1.1090.48211.0920.0000.3775.629
Jan-Feb1.7201.08022.7490.0001.1318.409
Jan-Mar2.1382.51927.2160.0001.36110.898

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.2365.538
2013.6163.456
3011.8562.395
4010.5871.643
509.4261.157
608.1970.776
706.9800.520
805.7000.315
903.9610.137

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.08911.908
225.7639.816
322.4699.003
420.5138.339
519.5567.851
618.5657.178
717.8706.711
817.3436.279
916.7135.854
1016.2365.538
1115.8435.280
1215.4094.998
1315.1864.787
1414.9014.578
1514.7284.352
1614.5364.175
1714.3023.972
1814.0673.768
1913.8573.592
2013.6163.456
2113.4303.327
2213.2113.186
2313.0053.088
2412.8312.949
2512.7002.863
2612.5592.791
2712.3852.682
2812.2272.596
2912.0412.499
3011.8562.395
3111.7242.301
3211.5932.208
3311.4402.136
3411.2932.066
3511.1531.972
3611.0371.899
3710.9281.828
3810.8221.763
3910.6831.710
4010.5871.643
4110.4671.579
4210.3221.532
4310.1951.494
4410.0521.442
459.9231.396
469.8121.346
479.7361.301
489.6371.244
499.5541.202
509.4261.157
519.2911.117
529.1601.078
539.0311.033
548.9240.992
558.8380.950
568.7260.901
578.6080.873
588.4710.845
598.3350.815
608.1970.776
618.0860.739
627.9540.712
637.8170.687
647.6810.658
657.5840.635
667.4700.613
677.3500.592
687.2350.565
697.1090.539
706.9800.520
716.8640.495
726.7560.475
736.6150.452
746.4840.432
756.3550.411
766.2220.392
776.1280.372
785.9720.354
795.8330.337
805.7000.315
815.5310.295
825.3570.276
835.2090.256
845.0370.239
854.8590.225
864.7220.206
874.5390.187
884.3650.173
894.1700.156
903.9610.137
913.7290.120
923.5020.101
933.3270.082
943.1360.059
952.9030.044
962.6920.027
972.3410.003
981.9060.000
991.4130.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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