Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan1.29811.0921.1740.0001.41211.092
Jan-Feb2.11722.7492.8040.0003.29622.749
Jan-Mar2.61227.21611.0180.0003.95227.216

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.4495.538
203.1623.456
302.4142.395
401.8721.643
501.4611.157
601.1650.776
700.8850.520
800.6270.315
900.3680.137

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.74211.908
27.5239.816
36.9479.003
46.1988.339
55.8457.851
65.4827.178
75.2206.711
84.9116.279
94.6545.854
104.4495.538
114.2705.280
124.0894.998
133.9514.787
143.8094.578
153.6524.352
163.5164.175
173.4123.972
183.3373.768
193.2423.592
203.1623.456
213.0653.327
222.9583.186
232.8943.088
242.8182.949
252.7472.863
262.6682.791
272.5962.682
282.5312.596
292.4672.499
302.4142.395
312.3462.301
322.2742.208
332.2182.136
342.1662.066
352.1051.972
362.0571.899
372.0141.828
381.9591.763
391.9181.710
401.8721.643
411.8171.579
421.7821.532
431.7461.494
441.7001.442
451.6551.396
461.6061.346
471.5701.301
481.5331.244
491.4941.202
501.4611.157
511.4311.117
521.4071.078
531.3721.033
541.3430.992
551.3180.950
561.2890.901
571.2480.873
581.2190.845
591.1940.815
601.1650.776
611.1330.739
621.1050.712
631.0720.687
641.0510.658
651.0170.635
660.9960.613
670.9640.592
680.9370.565
690.9140.539
700.8850.520
710.8570.495
720.8320.475
730.8070.452
740.7810.432
750.7560.411
760.7340.392
770.7100.372
780.6790.354
790.6500.337
800.6270.315
810.6020.295
820.5750.276
830.5460.256
840.5200.239
850.4950.225
860.4680.206
870.4380.187
880.4150.173
890.3930.156
900.3680.137
910.3400.120
920.3190.101
930.2930.082
940.2610.059
950.2270.044
960.1900.027
970.1510.003
980.1040.000
990.0550.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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