Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10648.438959.579
20513.713718.881
30429.084569.284
40361.730440.594
50307.185341.502
60258.677251.992
70215.202184.535
80164.851125.968
90115.65671.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1997.0171586.789
2888.0881386.319
3831.4201307.685
4792.5751242.999
5752.6811195.049
6731.3551128.252
7705.8061081.181
8685.1031037.065
9663.941992.890
10648.438959.579
11630.158931.836
12615.348901.088
13601.256877.667
14585.582854.106
15570.998828.098
16559.092807.369
17549.881783.066
18537.915758.206
19524.814736.241
20513.713718.881
21503.321702.064
22494.159683.298
23487.650670.148
24478.579650.941
25469.471638.884
26459.299628.491
27452.008612.648
28445.562600.055
29437.121585.408
30429.084569.284
31421.953554.531
32415.470539.552
33408.682527.733
34401.178516.092
35394.685500.137
36388.950487.407
37381.549474.727
38374.618462.931
39369.207453.265
40361.730440.594
41355.981428.387
42351.109419.375
43345.655411.805
44340.360401.446
45335.067392.167
46329.337381.830
47324.380372.500
48318.612360.392
49312.291351.285
50307.185341.502
51302.246332.680
52297.568323.910
53292.918313.728
54287.804304.074
55282.159294.366
56275.830282.722
57271.062275.909
58266.791269.077
59262.288261.643
60258.677251.992
61254.137242.483
62250.212235.622
63245.299229.278
64240.518221.573
65234.976215.641
66231.169209.640
67227.579204.092
68224.331196.939
69219.469189.690
70215.202184.535
71210.694177.573
72205.058172.069
73200.934165.695
74196.367160.076
75190.680153.932
76185.601148.521
77180.324142.706
78174.425137.413
79168.818132.414
80164.851125.968
81161.788120.017
82156.596114.454
83151.381108.255
84146.673103.158
85142.37098.811
86136.37993.060
87132.29187.255
88126.55682.674
89120.60377.285
90115.65671.434
91109.76966.106
92104.08359.982
9395.85453.653
9488.73946.225
9583.22141.089
9675.55635.372
9767.89227.413
9857.08920.926
9943.67913.816


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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