Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101621.5621683.257
201380.7551324.715
301211.6911117.126
401072.248940.892
50938.186799.422
60811.635658.870
70685.771537.495
80542.790408.746
90381.261248.882

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12253.7942876.622
22087.6012447.101
31969.3712290.874
41882.3892169.161
51831.2372078.780
61765.5651962.428
71724.9851882.253
81694.0831808.167
91659.9221736.273
101621.5621683.257
111599.0721639.896
121571.4251592.784
131545.1981557.068
141522.7581521.187
151496.3721482.451
161463.8221452.261
171441.1791416.468
181423.0091380.374
191402.6091349.119
201380.7551324.715
211364.3591301.104
221348.3091273.896
231333.3161256.477
241315.0961229.533
251296.6441213.101
261277.6941198.830
271258.6751176.491
281243.9481158.884
291226.6331139.450
301211.6911117.126
311198.1121097.214
321184.7521076.230
331171.8691060.118
341155.7991044.940
351139.3031022.603
361125.3601005.556
371110.997987.992
381095.167971.974
391084.642958.447
401072.248940.892
411054.134923.807
421040.929911.382
431027.777900.537
441016.508886.068
451004.623872.986
46991.064857.944
47977.046844.918
48965.259827.342
49951.977813.764
50938.186799.422
51927.585786.329
52918.034773.426
53903.721757.491
54890.557743.186
55879.242727.237
56865.776709.542
57855.478698.612
58839.263687.368
59826.924675.416
60811.635658.870
61798.231643.166
62786.391631.492
63773.102620.316
64763.019606.961
65750.561596.282
66738.889585.318
67725.048575.031
68710.830561.544
69700.037547.595
70685.771537.495
71671.749523.595
72657.628512.384
73641.351499.137
74630.365487.209
75617.196473.881
76604.076461.875
77589.245448.677
78577.213436.376
79561.390424.489
80542.790408.746
81530.476393.763
82515.708379.330
83499.823362.718
84481.292348.608
85468.582336.218
86453.176319.288
87433.295301.511
88415.346286.944
89397.250269.136
90381.261248.882
91361.277229.503
92339.868205.969
93315.543180.007
94295.525146.975
95267.896122.186
96236.81992.288
97202.95845.489
98168.8351.313
99120.3330.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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