Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10986.0371369.090
20780.1551084.189
30651.475899.416
40542.931730.501
50452.411589.726
60381.102450.672
70309.857336.736
80238.876231.850
90162.082131.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11608.9322091.935
21408.6531861.894
31299.4751771.531
41239.4351697.106
51183.8871641.867
61133.0621564.787
71092.3641510.352
81051.5881459.225
91019.3851407.899
10986.0371369.090
11962.2201336.689
12940.9351300.679
13919.0271273.172
14901.4931245.425
15878.3381214.696
16857.2011190.120
17835.5451161.202
18814.4091131.493
19796.2071105.122
20780.1551084.189
21764.0731063.830
22753.7671041.009
23739.8641024.947
24723.8031001.378
25708.837986.510
26696.748973.647
27687.271953.948
28673.592938.209
29661.905919.806
30651.475899.416
31640.336880.635
32626.209861.433
33613.364846.182
34601.415831.069
35591.197810.199
36579.622793.409
37571.456776.559
38559.483760.760
39550.413747.722
40542.931730.501
41532.285713.762
42521.644701.306
43512.650690.777
44504.801676.265
45495.427663.163
46486.892648.447
47476.983635.051
48467.728617.500
49459.556604.172
50452.411589.726
51445.892576.582
52438.531563.401
53431.216547.953
54422.515533.157
55415.175518.128
56408.715499.897
57401.772489.124
58395.628478.243
59388.867466.310
60381.102450.672
61373.404435.103
62365.306423.770
63357.109413.214
64349.107400.297
65342.008390.281
66336.071380.082
67330.198370.597
68322.434358.289
69316.042345.724
70309.857336.736
71303.337324.526
72297.103314.817
73290.423303.516
74283.547293.502
75276.487282.502
76269.288272.772
77260.147262.275
78253.573252.685
79246.247243.600
80238.876231.850
81232.218220.972
82225.597210.780
83218.931199.403
84210.473190.037
85202.876182.044
86197.044171.469
87188.773160.798
88179.530152.385
89171.481142.502
90162.082131.795
91154.459122.076
92145.042110.950
93136.07899.518
94126.09386.204
95111.71777.080
96101.32567.017
9788.19753.206
9873.68142.162
9950.75430.336


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence