Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10353.319378.674
20255.090256.842
30203.424198.691
40166.066156.107
50135.452126.245
60112.373100.233
7090.40080.583
8069.79962.467
9047.71343.683

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1752.952992.288
2605.461734.018
3532.912650.480
4498.426589.287
5462.575546.047
6431.847493.135
7409.895458.467
8389.776427.724
9371.314399.068
10353.319378.674
11338.649362.457
12322.400345.305
13311.387332.626
14302.432320.168
15294.274307.030
16286.265297.015
17277.683285.394
18268.907273.950
19261.095264.263
20255.090256.842
21250.001249.781
22244.253241.788
23238.042236.751
24232.299229.083
25227.029224.480
26222.480220.527
27217.204214.423
28211.504209.683
29207.674204.524
30203.424198.691
31199.667193.573
32195.282188.265
33191.494184.248
34187.740180.511
35183.907175.094
36180.154171.026
37176.250166.894
38172.306163.177
39169.152160.078
40166.066156.107
41162.594152.300
42158.373149.566
43155.307147.204
44152.387144.087
45149.916141.303
46146.638138.142
47143.603135.439
48141.048131.842
49138.265129.102
50135.452126.245
51132.671123.670
52129.558121.164
53127.057118.110
54124.686115.408
55122.527112.440
56120.280109.200
57118.573107.227
58116.420105.220
59114.378103.111
60112.373100.233
61110.09497.546
62107.12395.577
63104.34093.714
64102.01891.516
6599.55889.782
6697.47488.021
6795.43486.388
6893.60584.274
6992.17782.121
7090.40080.583
7188.45778.494
7286.39176.833
7384.21474.897
7482.10073.180
7580.20071.289
7677.90069.610
7776.01867.793
7874.04866.124
7971.67964.535
8069.79962.467
8167.60160.535
8265.47458.708
8363.47456.647
8461.41854.930
8559.02953.449
8656.89151.464
8754.60149.427
8851.81047.795
8950.02045.843
9047.71343.683
9145.10241.673
9242.09139.308
9339.57436.794
9436.22633.738
9533.55131.547
9630.58329.021
9726.55625.316
9822.15722.092
9916.30318.270


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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