Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101817.9991689.354
201500.7651367.770
301287.5421158.396
401131.351965.411
50972.848802.022
60841.927636.082
70719.370494.184
80579.642356.057
90418.160214.705

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12793.7062504.089
22510.5812244.836
32325.3062142.995
42208.0112059.116
52108.2961996.857
62021.9981909.978
71957.6251848.619
81908.2251790.982
91857.6341733.115
101817.9991689.354
111778.9751652.813
121739.2251612.198
131708.7681581.167
141678.4141549.859
151647.0141515.181
161620.9411487.438
171587.3721454.787
181563.9021421.229
191529.2991391.431
201500.7651367.770
211477.4311344.749
221451.4361318.932
231425.6741300.755
241398.0661274.068
251377.3621257.225
261358.4151242.648
271338.0761220.311
281320.7281202.454
291304.8481181.562
301287.5421158.396
311271.6361137.039
321254.7351115.183
331240.2081097.806
341223.0471080.574
351207.7121056.748
361193.8481037.556
371176.8601018.269
381156.8291000.163
391144.480985.201
401131.351965.411
411110.337946.141
421092.989931.779
431080.312919.622
441061.540902.841
451044.788887.664
461030.129870.582
471015.546855.000
481001.130834.536
49986.517818.954
50972.848802.022
51958.995786.575
52945.842771.043
53933.892752.783
54920.151735.232
55909.591717.339
56899.451695.538
57884.381682.602
58871.685669.496
59857.537655.071
60841.927636.082
61829.381617.077
62817.407603.174
63803.410590.171
64792.373574.185
65780.362561.730
66767.138548.993
67753.177537.095
68741.272521.579
69732.344505.645
70719.370494.184
71707.772478.532
72694.383466.013
73680.988451.356
74667.301438.290
75652.988423.850
76642.296410.995
77627.924397.041
78611.417384.212
79598.021371.984
80579.642356.057
81564.164341.198
82549.169327.173
83530.340311.393
84514.727298.305
85498.782287.060
86484.371272.075
87467.503256.829
88450.486244.713
89435.874230.375
90418.160214.705
91396.588200.352
92374.723183.768
93352.717166.545
94332.018146.242
95311.107132.164
96270.585116.473
97243.63094.617
98205.17976.836
99154.65157.427


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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