Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10961.5321369.090
20754.9681084.189
30630.805899.416
40523.065730.501
50436.462589.726
60365.797450.672
70297.783336.736
80230.150231.850
90154.652131.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11556.9112091.935
21374.9361861.894
31274.5021771.531
41209.8531697.106
51147.4811641.867
61096.4431564.787
71067.9621510.352
81029.0961459.225
9996.6631407.899
10961.5321369.090
11940.0651336.689
12917.4201300.679
13898.1681273.172
14874.7521245.425
15849.0171214.696
16833.1441190.120
17816.9421161.202
18793.6001131.493
19772.0561105.122
20754.9681084.189
21738.1631063.830
22723.4471041.009
23711.1171024.947
24702.2471001.378
25688.337986.510
26676.734973.647
27664.592953.948
28651.306938.209
29638.504919.806
30630.805899.416
31619.707880.635
32605.591861.433
33590.977846.182
34581.758831.069
35568.678810.199
36558.768793.409
37549.229776.559
38538.955760.760
39532.420747.722
40523.065730.501
41512.513713.762
42502.315701.306
43494.396690.777
44487.732676.265
45478.662663.163
46470.155648.447
47461.464635.051
48453.510617.500
49445.797604.172
50436.462589.726
51428.696576.582
52421.045563.401
53413.819547.953
54408.376533.157
55401.366518.128
56394.976499.897
57389.442489.124
58381.842478.243
59374.145466.310
60365.797450.672
61358.272435.103
62351.785423.770
63345.396413.214
64339.065400.297
65330.947390.281
66324.726380.082
67317.443370.597
68310.328358.289
69303.937345.724
70297.783336.736
71290.730324.526
72285.652314.817
73279.062303.516
74271.237293.502
75264.652282.502
76258.297272.772
77251.491262.275
78244.872252.685
79238.742243.600
80230.150231.850
81223.598220.972
82215.951210.780
83209.482199.403
84201.187190.037
85192.540182.044
86185.946171.469
87179.940160.798
88170.640152.385
89161.701142.502
90154.652131.795
91147.970122.076
92137.754110.950
93127.07399.518
94118.44686.204
95104.94777.080
9693.46667.017
9784.11653.206
9868.53642.162
9945.70530.336


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence