Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101091.7631369.090
20870.4501084.189
30734.408899.416
40613.554730.501
50522.185589.726
60439.255450.672
70360.229336.736
80281.797231.850
90189.996131.795

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11695.5962091.935
21506.9531861.894
31402.7551771.531
41337.7511697.106
51277.0041641.867
61233.8651564.787
71190.5791510.352
81154.4611459.225
91130.0701407.899
101091.7631369.090
111063.3951336.689
121036.9171300.679
131019.7861273.172
14992.5071245.425
15967.6631214.696
16952.3831190.120
17933.7081161.202
18914.1221131.493
19887.3201105.122
20870.4501084.189
21855.1651063.830
22840.3491041.009
23826.4151024.947
24809.8711001.378
25798.465986.510
26785.166973.647
27770.621953.948
28757.422938.209
29746.542919.806
30734.408899.416
31718.023880.635
32708.057861.433
33695.101846.182
34681.110831.069
35669.688810.199
36657.736793.409
37644.738776.559
38635.449760.760
39622.831747.722
40613.554730.501
41603.902713.762
42595.265701.306
43586.012690.777
44574.566676.265
45564.137663.163
46555.156648.447
47546.570635.051
48538.343617.500
49530.336604.172
50522.185589.726
51513.606576.582
52505.617563.401
53494.899547.953
54488.561533.157
55481.834518.128
56473.287499.897
57464.340489.124
58457.979478.243
59448.890466.310
60439.255450.672
61432.495435.103
62424.550423.770
63416.586413.214
64408.579400.297
65400.482390.281
66390.765380.082
67382.825370.597
68375.703358.289
69367.474345.724
70360.229336.736
71352.453324.526
72344.109314.817
73337.759303.516
74331.127293.502
75322.399282.502
76314.579272.772
77305.812262.275
78299.304252.685
79290.698243.600
80281.797231.850
81273.050220.972
82265.061210.780
83257.625199.403
84246.772190.037
85235.508182.044
86227.265171.469
87220.574160.798
88211.065152.385
89200.320142.502
90189.996131.795
91179.884122.076
92170.223110.950
93158.43999.518
94147.40086.204
95133.61777.080
96118.26367.017
97106.33853.206
9890.75742.162
9961.83230.336


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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