Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10407.184959.579
20311.704718.881
30248.869569.284
40204.479440.594
50169.340341.502
60140.003251.992
70114.123184.535
8087.848125.968
9058.52971.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1734.9921586.789
2620.1081386.319
3562.4941307.685
4526.4051242.999
5494.5941195.049
6472.0161128.252
7454.1381081.181
8434.4601037.065
9419.608992.890
10407.184959.579
11392.028931.836
12381.317901.088
13368.066877.667
14359.981854.106
15351.886828.098
16342.167807.369
17333.048783.066
18323.730758.206
19317.605736.241
20311.704718.881
21303.594702.064
22297.537683.298
23291.847670.148
24285.260650.941
25278.879638.884
26272.969628.491
27265.748612.648
28258.703600.055
29253.091585.408
30248.869569.284
31242.436554.531
32238.349539.552
33233.336527.733
34228.878516.092
35223.740500.137
36219.128487.407
37215.535474.727
38211.736462.931
39207.824453.265
40204.479440.594
41200.127428.387
42196.034419.375
43192.116411.805
44188.587401.446
45185.570392.167
46182.239381.830
47179.133372.500
48175.303360.392
49172.636351.285
50169.340341.502
51165.865332.680
52162.495323.910
53159.295313.728
54156.750304.074
55154.085294.366
56150.984282.722
57148.531275.909
58145.515269.077
59143.283261.643
60140.003251.992
61137.927242.483
62135.677235.622
63133.535229.278
64130.141221.573
65127.832215.641
66125.113209.640
67121.986204.092
68119.202196.939
69116.913189.690
70114.123184.535
71111.178177.573
72108.334172.069
73106.093165.695
74102.836160.076
75100.265153.932
7697.328148.521
7795.187142.706
7892.541137.413
7990.382132.414
8087.848125.968
8185.105120.017
8282.632114.454
8379.860108.255
8477.371103.158
8574.89198.811
8671.80393.060
8768.00687.255
8865.12682.674
8961.70477.285
9058.52971.434
9155.26966.106
9251.91659.982
9349.08553.653
9445.47446.225
9541.62741.089
9637.70835.372
9732.82927.413
9826.07220.926
9920.06613.816


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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