Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10475.216959.579
20368.020718.881
30299.479569.284
40247.094440.594
50207.720341.502
60172.038251.992
70140.583184.535
80109.944125.968
9074.23071.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1827.6171586.789
2693.3621386.319
3637.4611307.685
4603.9051242.999
5570.3091195.049
6544.2331128.252
7521.8241081.181
8506.4791037.065
9492.370992.890
10475.216959.579
11460.422931.836
12447.401901.088
13433.819877.667
14423.315854.106
15413.441828.098
16404.141807.369
17395.099783.066
18387.790758.206
19378.590736.241
20368.020718.881
21360.505702.064
22353.842683.298
23347.962670.148
24341.839650.941
25333.287638.884
26326.809628.491
27319.825612.648
28313.291600.055
29305.793585.408
30299.479569.284
31292.494554.531
32287.787539.552
33283.184527.733
34277.362516.092
35271.912500.137
36266.745487.407
37261.608474.727
38257.143462.931
39252.116453.265
40247.094440.594
41242.961428.387
42238.421419.375
43234.754411.805
44230.488401.446
45226.322392.167
46222.824381.830
47218.522372.500
48215.392360.392
49211.100351.285
50207.720341.502
51204.193332.680
52199.965323.910
53196.346313.728
54193.391304.074
55189.165294.366
56185.244282.722
57181.306275.909
58178.595269.077
59175.134261.643
60172.038251.992
61169.578242.483
62166.263235.622
63162.562229.278
64159.735221.573
65156.533215.641
66153.628209.640
67150.159204.092
68146.773196.939
69143.894189.690
70140.583184.535
71137.617177.573
72134.150172.069
73130.720165.695
74127.837160.076
75124.266153.932
76121.518148.521
77118.406142.706
78115.570137.413
79113.033132.414
80109.944125.968
81106.597120.017
82103.013114.454
83100.047108.255
8496.009103.158
8593.07198.811
8689.87193.060
8785.73987.255
8881.76282.674
8977.88777.285
9074.23071.434
9169.95566.106
9266.24159.982
9362.58353.653
9457.56846.225
9553.36441.089
9649.32635.372
9742.19427.413
9834.74720.926
9925.55613.816


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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