Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10133.036275.084
2099.321180.678
3080.240136.193
4066.065103.770
5055.17681.210
6045.74561.710
7038.15346.940
8030.09533.486
9020.73819.638

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1283.115772.121
2227.248557.661
3201.247490.455
4187.666441.092
5170.057407.610
6161.887364.970
7153.859337.483
8145.452313.483
9139.155291.034
10133.036275.084
11127.921262.404
12123.615248.959
13119.966239.126
14116.396229.575
15113.379219.413
16109.882211.585
17106.883202.704
18104.216193.935
19101.488186.440
2099.321180.678
2197.046175.227
2294.900169.290
2393.356165.218
2491.210159.398
2589.085155.819
2687.317152.778
2785.816148.220
2883.677144.661
2981.927140.591
3080.240136.193
3178.592132.243
3277.439128.300
3375.987125.235
3474.346122.256
3573.187118.232
3671.824115.069
3770.032111.959
3868.480109.099
3967.513106.780
4066.065103.770
4165.107100.901
4263.99198.802
4362.79297.050
4461.63794.669
4560.27692.552
4659.22590.209
4758.26088.108
4857.27385.400
4956.19983.375
5055.17681.210
5154.26979.266
5253.21277.340
5352.34875.113
5451.29973.008
5550.55370.896
5649.60868.369
5748.42966.892
5847.58165.412
5946.50463.801
6045.74561.710
6144.99359.647
6244.22858.157
6343.67856.777
6442.93755.098
6542.23353.802
6641.48552.487
6740.61951.268
6839.88149.692
6938.88748.086
7038.15346.940
7137.29345.385
7236.47544.149
7335.54642.709
7434.67741.432
7533.96140.027
7633.28038.781
7732.27437.433
7831.65136.195
7930.73135.018
8030.09533.486
8129.00532.057
8228.05430.706
8327.36429.183
8426.38527.916
8525.39926.823
8624.45425.360
8723.44323.860
8822.63122.659
8921.77821.225
9020.73819.638
9119.26318.165
9218.39316.432
9317.54014.594
9415.96112.363
9514.58410.766
9613.0238.929
9711.3506.241
989.7283.910
997.1621.158


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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