Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River

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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River

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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of Streamflow (%)	Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL)	Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL)
10	82.510	118.810
20	64.765	83.957
30	53.483	66.407
40	45.158	53.010
50	38.536	43.249
60	32.524	34.423
70	26.901	27.497
80	21.002	20.852
90	14.284	13.599

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of Streamflow (%)	Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL)	Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL)
1	159.637	276.765
2	130.678	212.428
3	119.962	191.122
4	110.719	175.295
5	102.400	163.978
6	96.635	149.955
7	92.976	140.650
8	88.773	132.310
9	85.743	124.454
10	82.510	118.810
11	80.654	114.288
12	78.275	109.471
13	76.345	105.885
14	73.905	102.341
15	71.725	98.580
16	70.269	95.695
17	68.780	92.327
18	67.171	88.990
19	65.989	86.147
20	64.765	83.957
21	63.281	81.864
22	62.003	79.483
23	60.733	77.976
24	59.735	75.672
25	58.585	74.282
26	57.702	73.085
27	56.588	71.230
28	55.556	69.783
29	54.419	68.202
30	53.483	66.407
31	52.260	64.824
32	51.420	63.175
33	50.663	61.922
34	49.859	60.753
35	49.038	59.050
36	48.282	57.766
37	47.661	56.456
38	46.781	55.273
39	45.978	54.283
40	45.158	53.010
41	44.428	51.784
42	43.878	50.901
43	43.253	50.136
44	42.518	49.122
45	41.825	48.214
46	41.080	47.180
47	40.508	46.292
48	39.960	45.106
49	39.297	44.198
50	38.536	43.249
51	37.877	42.390
52	37.154	41.551
53	36.547	40.525
54	35.911	39.614
55	35.343	38.608
56	34.690	37.505
57	34.073	36.831
58	33.548	36.143
59	33.012	35.417
60	32.524	34.423
61	31.953	33.491
62	31.355	32.805
63	30.895	32.154
64	30.389	31.383
65	29.721	30.772
66	29.093	30.150
67	28.490	29.571
68	27.940	28.819
69	27.401	28.049
70	26.901	27.497
71	26.330	26.745
72	25.826	26.145
73	25.226	25.442
74	24.650	24.816
75	24.077	24.124
76	23.333	23.507
77	22.790	22.836
78	22.096	22.218
79	21.614	21.626
80	21.002	20.852
81	20.443	20.125
82	19.869	19.435
83	19.137	18.651
84	18.605	17.994
85	17.939	17.425
86	17.198	16.658
87	16.590	15.865
88	15.741	15.226
89	14.956	14.457
90	14.284	13.599
91	13.408	12.795
92	12.769	11.839
93	11.700	10.813
94	10.809	9.549
95	9.624	8.631
96	8.440	7.559
97	7.025	5.957
98	5.326	4.530
99	3.376	2.792

About the exceedance probability product

The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.

Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence

Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River

About the exceedance probability product

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