Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1065.016118.810
2050.34083.957
3041.01066.407
4034.67353.010
5029.07143.249
6024.24334.423
7019.65527.497
8015.02020.852
909.57613.599

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1127.388276.765
2106.471212.428
396.088191.122
488.369175.295
581.350163.978
676.893149.955
773.737140.650
870.419132.310
967.906124.454
1065.016118.810
1163.201114.288
1261.356109.471
1359.906105.885
1457.912102.341
1556.45198.580
1654.95395.695
1753.77492.327
1852.66188.990
1951.39586.147
2050.34083.957
2149.26381.864
2248.30979.483
2347.30277.976
2446.45975.672
2545.53774.282
2644.63973.085
2743.57471.230
2842.73369.783
2941.87468.202
3041.01066.407
3140.33264.824
3239.64163.175
3338.94461.922
3438.26360.753
3537.53459.050
3636.95857.766
3736.43256.456
3835.80655.273
3935.20754.283
4034.67353.010
4134.02251.784
4233.43250.901
4332.88650.136
4432.23449.122
4531.69848.214
4631.21647.180
4730.75546.292
4830.19545.106
4929.62444.198
5029.07143.249
5128.47942.390
5227.98141.551
5327.53040.525
5426.89939.614
5526.39038.608
5625.86537.505
5725.49136.831
5825.14736.143
5924.67135.417
6024.24334.423
6123.71933.491
6223.34532.805
6322.85432.154
6422.36531.383
6521.84530.772
6621.38730.150
6720.88629.571
6820.52628.819
6920.07828.049
7019.65527.497
7119.22526.745
7218.81226.145
7318.32225.442
7417.84924.816
7517.25524.124
7616.71823.507
7716.27022.836
7815.78422.218
7915.43521.626
8015.02020.852
8114.47520.125
8213.86419.435
8313.42418.651
8412.87217.994
8512.43917.425
8611.84916.658
8711.30815.865
8810.67915.226
8910.16014.457
909.57613.599
918.90612.795
928.31811.839
937.38710.813
946.5529.549
955.8878.631
964.8587.559
973.5455.957
982.1444.530
990.1972.792


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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