Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10355.860378.674
20257.643256.842
30205.311198.691
40167.423156.107
50136.822126.245
60113.412100.233
7091.28980.583
8070.46362.467
9048.21943.683

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1757.149992.288
2610.911734.018
3536.978650.480
4502.365589.287
5465.947546.047
6435.581493.135
7413.189458.467
8392.544427.724
9375.008399.068
10355.860378.674
11341.305362.457
12325.105345.305
13313.795332.626
14305.130320.168
15296.740307.030
16288.897297.015
17279.992285.394
18271.055273.950
19263.430264.263
20257.643256.842
21252.282249.781
22246.574241.788
23240.145236.751
24234.643229.083
25229.175224.480
26224.336220.527
27219.186214.423
28213.569209.683
29209.693204.524
30205.311198.691
31201.523193.573
32197.362188.265
33193.104184.248
34189.628180.511
35185.610175.094
36181.885171.026
37177.790166.894
38173.842163.177
39170.961160.078
40167.423156.107
41164.176152.300
42159.783149.566
43156.746147.204
44153.988144.087
45151.357141.303
46147.941138.142
47144.975135.439
48142.512131.842
49139.567129.102
50136.822126.245
51133.933123.670
52130.773121.164
53128.256118.110
54125.986115.408
55123.765112.440
56121.442109.200
57119.626107.227
58117.537105.220
59115.401103.111
60113.412100.233
61111.09597.546
62108.12295.577
63105.38093.714
64103.08591.516
65100.46989.782
6698.34788.021
6796.34886.388
6894.44384.274
6993.11382.121
7091.28980.583
7189.34378.494
7287.26976.833
7384.96774.897
7482.83673.180
7581.03271.289
7678.59169.610
7776.82967.793
7874.82666.124
7972.37464.535
8070.46362.467
8168.23160.535
8266.09558.708
8364.00256.647
8462.05354.930
8559.63253.449
8657.39851.464
8755.19549.427
8852.33747.795
8950.54445.843
9048.21943.683
9145.45741.673
9242.50639.308
9339.94536.794
9436.61033.738
9533.93731.547
9630.86929.021
9726.90625.316
9822.44322.092
9916.53918.270


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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