Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101031.8151402.491
20791.6131058.489
30649.647850.664
40531.818675.602
50438.896542.023
60359.582420.401
70285.368326.315
80213.682241.023
90134.978156.024

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11726.2532327.848
21527.9682029.794
31402.7371913.259
41331.9481817.625
51268.7391746.898
61198.8271648.652
71155.3241579.648
81109.6401515.177
91066.8541450.843
101031.8151402.491
11997.8831362.340
12968.5051317.972
13939.6131284.277
14915.1941250.474
15891.7761213.275
16873.6401183.714
17850.6721149.162
18826.6561113.941
19808.3411082.928
20791.6131058.489
21777.2781034.876
22759.6851008.601
23743.777990.236
24726.675963.483
25712.333946.730
26699.487932.316
27683.531910.390
28672.609893.003
29660.505872.824
30649.647850.664
31635.843830.439
32622.745809.949
33607.774793.812
34594.417777.946
35584.330756.242
36574.147738.956
37562.207721.765
38553.864705.794
39541.279692.721
40531.818675.602
41522.660659.125
42512.991646.969
43502.511636.763
44493.561622.802
45482.464610.300
46472.116596.375
47463.149583.806
48454.408567.492
49447.799555.217
50438.896542.023
51428.467530.116
52419.832518.267
53412.539504.497
54403.238491.421
55395.927478.250
56388.558462.417
57380.183453.133
58372.937443.808
59366.695433.639
60359.582420.401
61351.390407.316
62341.569397.845
63335.045389.062
64327.121378.363
65318.282370.100
66310.890361.713
67305.761353.936
68300.655343.872
69292.172333.628
70285.368326.315
71276.362316.395
72270.346308.517
73263.894299.352
74257.249291.233
75250.589282.312
76243.684274.412
77236.059265.879
78229.321258.067
79220.720250.649
80213.682241.023
81206.157232.072
82198.234223.644
83191.621214.179
84183.688206.336
85175.333199.599
86168.532190.618
87160.080181.466
88152.643174.178
89143.805165.525
90134.978156.024
91126.211147.268
92117.881137.072
93108.691126.370
9498.893113.565
9589.151104.537
9677.89494.297
9765.76379.642
9853.22667.281
9935.05453.170


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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