Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101745.0811683.257
201502.1761324.715
301331.5131117.126
401185.511940.892
501042.536799.422
60913.264658.870
70781.743537.495
80635.913408.746
90457.872248.882

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12356.7092876.622
22216.9252447.101
32108.3242290.874
42024.9022169.161
51959.5352078.780
61894.2431962.428
71852.6171882.253
81819.8901808.167
91776.9691736.273
101745.0811683.257
111718.1071639.896
121698.8031592.784
131668.8361557.068
141635.7981521.187
151615.4861482.451
161590.3781452.261
171571.8191416.468
181547.9901380.374
191523.9251349.119
201502.1761324.715
211480.3561301.104
221467.1761273.896
231446.0661256.477
241429.4861229.533
251411.2151213.101
261396.7221198.830
271381.2751176.491
281366.0391158.884
291349.8251139.450
301331.5131117.126
311317.2251097.214
321301.4981076.230
331286.5861060.118
341272.7591044.940
351256.6011022.603
361239.2771005.556
371225.399987.992
381212.015971.974
391197.801958.447
401185.511940.892
411171.286923.807
421156.201911.382
431140.957900.537
441130.316886.068
451113.705872.986
461096.677857.944
471084.136844.918
481066.069827.342
491055.774813.764
501042.536799.422
511030.180786.329
521018.271773.426
531006.164757.491
54994.842743.186
55982.251727.237
56969.780709.542
57955.569698.612
58943.318687.368
59928.590675.416
60913.264658.870
61902.145643.166
62890.677631.492
63875.788620.316
64861.196606.961
65849.092596.282
66831.757585.318
67819.574575.031
68808.489561.544
69795.423547.595
70781.743537.495
71764.874523.595
72749.133512.384
73736.933499.137
74724.753487.209
75712.025473.881
76696.600461.875
77682.008448.677
78667.799436.376
79653.703424.489
80635.913408.746
81620.032393.763
82603.124379.330
83590.346362.718
84568.746348.608
85549.824336.218
86531.003319.288
87512.695301.511
88493.584286.944
89477.142269.136
90457.872248.882
91433.137229.503
92404.968205.969
93382.354180.007
94353.951146.975
95326.059122.186
96293.77992.288
97257.82745.489
98208.4851.313
99153.7990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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