Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10267.635476.709
20212.896327.301
30176.875253.493
40150.822197.968
50129.289158.046
60112.361122.409
7094.51894.807
8077.49468.684
9055.99840.668

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1450.7621183.689
2396.094891.100
3366.107795.452
4346.834724.861
5328.045674.646
6308.913612.751
7296.023571.889
8284.051535.417
9275.249501.202
10267.635476.709
11259.980457.140
12253.233436.351
13247.091420.915
14241.081405.691
15234.850389.571
16230.823377.235
17226.077362.867
18221.954348.659
19216.826336.583
20212.896327.301
21208.739318.443
22204.378308.383
23200.363302.025
24197.388292.320
25193.379286.477
26190.175281.449
27186.776273.665
28182.866267.605
29179.985260.991
30176.875253.493
31174.209246.894
32171.129240.030
33168.094234.822
34165.130229.965
35162.435222.906
36159.653217.589
37157.721212.174
38155.698207.291
39153.065203.209
40150.822197.968
41149.222192.928
42146.928189.301
43144.877186.161
44142.380182.009
45139.931178.293
46137.628174.063
47135.789170.437
48133.794165.600
49131.731161.906
50129.289158.046
51127.563154.557
52125.958151.154
53124.388146.997
54122.620143.309
55120.869139.246
56119.008134.798
57117.892132.082
58116.093129.314
59114.357126.398
60112.361122.409
61110.611118.673
62109.058115.928
63107.192113.325
64105.331110.248
65103.599107.812
66101.906105.335
6799.942103.033
6898.398100.045
6996.57196.994
7094.51894.807
7192.70091.832
7291.40289.459
7389.65386.688
7487.98984.221
7586.19881.498
7684.92979.074
7783.03476.442
7880.87774.020
7979.36671.706
8077.49468.684
8175.28865.852
8273.70663.164
8371.45060.120
8469.65057.576
8567.95255.373
8666.13952.410
8764.14749.358
8861.27246.900
8958.92243.951
9055.99840.668
9153.40737.599
9250.97333.965
9348.76930.076
9445.66325.307
9542.62321.859
9638.29917.848
9734.16911.895
9829.5346.634
9922.8700.285


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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