Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10140.536275.084
20104.989180.678
3084.875136.193
4070.200103.770
5058.67381.210
6048.63661.710
7040.63046.940
8032.07933.486
9022.24319.638

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1296.597772.121
2238.678557.661
3211.798490.455
4197.919441.092
5179.924407.610
6171.317364.970
7163.477337.483
8153.933313.483
9147.365291.034
10140.536275.084
11135.185262.404
12130.921248.959
13127.082239.126
14122.769229.575
15119.475219.413
16116.699211.585
17113.217202.704
18110.543193.935
19107.376186.440
20104.989180.678
21102.770175.227
22100.322169.290
2398.814165.218
2496.453159.398
2594.371155.819
2692.549152.778
2790.536148.220
2889.029144.661
2987.089140.591
3084.875136.193
3183.416132.243
3282.012128.300
3380.713125.235
3478.972122.256
3577.802118.232
3676.041115.069
3774.056111.959
3872.660109.099
3971.705106.780
4070.200103.770
4169.111100.901
4267.90598.802
4366.50097.050
4465.27894.669
4564.00692.552
4663.04090.209
4761.94788.108
4860.75085.400
4959.57083.375
5058.67381.210
5157.69979.266
5256.65577.340
5355.63475.113
5454.67173.008
5553.71570.896
5652.72968.369
5751.52766.892
5850.63565.412
5949.48563.801
6048.63661.710
6147.81759.647
6247.08658.157
6346.50456.777
6445.64555.098
6544.92353.802
6644.22452.487
6743.30151.268
6842.52549.692
6941.59848.086
7040.63046.940
7139.81045.385
7238.92044.149
7337.85342.709
7436.93241.432
7536.26440.027
7635.55838.781
7734.59237.433
7833.74936.195
7932.95635.018
8032.07933.486
8131.08932.057
8230.00730.706
8329.30529.183
8428.28627.916
8527.30526.823
8626.24925.360
8725.03623.860
8824.13722.659
8923.31621.225
9022.24319.638
9120.80818.165
9219.78616.432
9318.86214.594
9417.21212.363
9515.84010.766
9614.1818.929
9712.3206.241
9810.6003.910
997.9531.158


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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