Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10147.245133.960
20117.78496.994
30100.63875.931
4086.63559.010
5074.80446.563
6063.22735.495
7053.47827.030
8042.95819.353
9030.55211.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1238.952240.570
2209.085205.610
3191.072192.049
4178.854180.984
5171.634172.845
6164.300161.613
7159.206153.784
8154.249146.520
9150.532139.327
10147.245133.960
11143.579129.531
12140.303124.669
13137.142120.999
14134.376117.339
15131.516113.337
16128.658110.176
17125.348106.505
18122.071102.789
19119.74599.540
20117.78496.994
21116.04494.549
22113.99091.843
23112.40189.961
24110.48487.235
25108.53085.536
26106.81684.080
27105.26181.876
28103.60280.136
29101.82178.126
30100.63875.931
3199.04073.938
3297.39771.929
3396.00270.354
3494.44668.812
3593.10666.713
3691.96365.049
3790.69363.401
3889.23261.876
3987.95660.633
4086.63559.010
4185.59357.455
4284.31656.311
4383.12055.353
4482.06454.047
4580.53552.880
4679.29451.584
4778.11850.418
4876.85748.909
4975.82747.777
5074.80446.563
5173.76045.469
5272.55344.384
5371.33643.126
5469.93541.933
5568.60540.734
5667.58739.296
5766.67038.455
5865.44637.610
5964.18836.691
6063.22735.495
6162.24734.315
6261.18933.461
6360.31732.670
6459.37331.707
6558.27630.964
6657.36030.210
6756.54729.511
6855.49128.607
6954.42327.687
7053.47827.030
7152.57126.139
7251.66425.431
7350.27124.607
7449.23723.877
7548.27923.075
7647.16922.364
7746.18421.596
7845.13720.892
7944.10720.222
8042.95819.353
8141.80318.544
8240.82617.781
8339.62516.922
8438.48616.210
8536.93715.596
8635.78214.778
8734.71613.941
8833.21913.273
8932.02312.479
9030.55211.603
9129.18410.794
9227.9179.847
9326.3138.849
9424.6067.647
9522.6426.794
9620.9005.821
9718.6944.414
9816.2473.213
9912.7161.822


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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