Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Feb 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10120.753118.810
2095.37383.957
3079.76266.407
4068.04353.010
5058.75643.249
6050.36934.423
7042.53327.497
8033.97120.852
9024.51313.599

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.403276.765
2185.750212.428
3168.235191.122
4157.376175.295
5147.066163.978
6139.742149.955
7134.164140.650
8128.973132.310
9124.673124.454
10120.753118.810
11116.534114.288
12113.785109.471
13110.762105.885
14107.750102.341
15104.66198.580
16102.90595.695
17100.86292.327
1898.91688.990
1997.10786.147
2095.37383.957
2193.48181.864
2291.53579.483
2389.87277.976
2488.13175.672
2586.72174.282
2685.32173.085
2784.02071.230
2882.78469.783
2981.53868.202
3079.76266.407
3178.42764.824
3277.20063.175
3376.21661.922
3475.00360.753
3573.42759.050
3672.28757.766
3771.20256.456
3870.07955.273
3968.98054.283
4068.04353.010
4167.05751.784
4265.97750.901
4365.10450.136
4463.98449.122
4563.29348.214
4662.30247.180
4761.39746.292
4860.48245.106
4959.55044.198
5058.75643.249
5158.11242.390
5257.19841.551
5356.35940.525
5455.56139.614
5554.59138.608
5653.52737.505
5752.77036.831
5851.80036.143
5951.06635.417
6050.36934.423
6149.52033.491
6248.82332.805
6348.16332.154
6447.40131.383
6546.67230.772
6646.03330.150
6745.11529.571
6844.32728.819
6943.41428.049
7042.53327.497
7141.77526.745
7240.82626.145
7339.96525.442
7439.08724.816
7538.31924.124
7637.57423.507
7736.54322.836
7835.65922.218
7934.86921.626
8033.97120.852
8133.26520.125
8232.48219.435
8331.76518.651
8430.95417.994
8529.80417.425
8628.81216.658
8727.78315.865
8826.68115.226
8925.62714.457
9024.51313.599
9123.47912.795
9222.36911.839
9320.92710.813
9419.7019.549
9518.1328.631
9616.3007.559
9714.1685.957
9812.1274.530
999.6372.792


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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