Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1066.264133.960
2048.91496.994
3039.38075.931
4032.37259.010
5026.35946.563
6022.11835.495
7017.62027.030
8013.35519.353
908.57511.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1128.602240.570
2107.332205.610
394.221192.049
486.934180.984
581.948172.845
677.331161.613
773.236153.784
871.072146.520
968.361139.327
1066.264133.960
1163.810129.531
1261.177124.669
1359.253120.999
1457.412117.339
1555.761113.337
1654.457110.176
1752.888106.505
1851.515102.789
1950.17899.540
2048.91496.994
2147.59494.549
2246.61491.843
2345.64189.961
2444.47187.235
2543.52585.536
2642.86784.080
2741.99181.876
2841.15080.136
2940.22578.126
3039.38075.931
3138.60173.938
3237.82071.929
3337.12470.354
3436.35268.812
3535.65366.713
3635.07865.049
3734.15363.401
3833.73961.876
3933.03360.633
4032.37259.010
4131.66157.455
4231.04256.311
4330.42155.353
4429.85654.047
4529.13352.880
4628.59451.584
4728.16650.418
4827.59948.909
4926.99347.777
5026.35946.563
5125.92645.469
5225.52844.384
5325.01443.126
5424.56441.933
5524.14440.734
5623.67539.296
5723.31838.455
5822.85637.610
5922.52336.691
6022.11835.495
6121.63834.315
6221.15533.461
6320.74332.670
6420.26331.707
6519.80130.964
6619.28330.210
6718.85029.511
6818.37128.607
6918.01727.687
7017.62027.030
7117.13726.139
7216.73125.431
7316.29024.607
7415.91423.877
7515.48923.075
7615.08222.364
7714.69721.596
7814.19120.892
7913.75320.222
8013.35519.353
8112.89718.544
8212.54617.781
8312.06616.922
8411.51416.210
8511.09515.596
8610.62214.778
8710.03013.941
889.49013.273
899.04712.479
908.57511.603
918.09010.794
927.5299.847
937.0708.849
946.4607.647
955.6616.794
965.0055.821
973.9604.414
982.9573.213
991.5561.822


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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