Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1073.364133.960
2054.86296.994
3044.44675.931
4036.73559.010
5030.21146.563
6025.34735.495
7020.27627.030
8015.52119.353
9010.17711.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1139.171240.570
2117.400205.610
3103.588192.049
495.901180.984
589.628172.845
685.975161.613
781.284153.784
878.543146.520
976.188139.327
1073.364133.960
1170.681129.531
1268.016124.669
1366.469120.999
1463.944117.339
1562.497113.337
1661.036110.176
1759.246106.505
1857.553102.789
1956.12199.540
2054.86296.994
2153.56694.549
2252.22391.843
2351.20389.961
2449.92887.235
2549.16385.536
2648.12584.080
2747.32481.876
2846.16380.136
2945.29678.126
3044.44675.931
3143.66273.938
3242.78171.929
3341.91170.354
3441.17768.812
3540.38166.713
3639.60565.049
3738.82763.401
3838.10561.876
3937.43160.633
4036.73559.010
4135.94857.455
4235.19156.311
4334.61255.353
4433.85754.047
4533.25552.880
4632.69251.584
4732.10850.418
4831.34248.909
4930.80347.777
5030.21146.563
5129.67245.469
5229.16444.384
5328.64643.126
5428.13141.933
5527.54740.734
5627.06539.296
5726.63138.455
5826.14137.610
5925.67536.691
6025.34735.495
6124.80834.315
6224.29833.461
6323.74732.670
6423.19131.707
6522.70230.964
6622.21330.210
6721.72129.511
6821.19828.607
6920.74627.687
7020.27627.030
7119.84426.139
7219.36025.431
7318.84224.607
7418.30123.877
7517.91623.075
7617.50522.364
7717.09421.596
7816.46020.892
7916.01920.222
8015.52119.353
8115.10218.544
8214.59717.781
8314.04416.922
8413.48816.210
8512.99815.596
8612.47014.778
8711.93413.941
8811.19113.273
8910.73012.479
9010.17711.603
919.63010.794
929.0229.847
938.4768.849
947.7767.647
956.9756.794
966.0925.821
975.0494.414
983.8393.213
992.4091.822


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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