Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile65.75081.502
Median100.582158.046
Mean118.023223.832
75% Quartile152.476286.408
Interquartile Range86.727204.906

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1365.2471183.689
2321.596891.100
3296.908795.452
4277.756724.861
5261.185674.646
6246.634612.751
7238.029571.889
8229.672535.417
9220.507501.202
10215.030476.709
11208.540457.140
12201.661436.351
13196.797420.915
14191.957405.691
15186.420389.571
16181.357377.235
17177.869362.867
18174.579348.659
19171.398336.583
20167.779327.301
21164.390318.443
22161.193308.383
23158.383302.025
24155.460292.320
25152.495286.477
26149.514281.449
27147.244273.665
28144.478267.605
29142.192260.991
30139.030253.493
31136.892246.894
32134.330240.030
33131.879234.822
34129.909229.965
35128.024222.906
36125.988217.589
37123.733212.174
38122.045207.291
39119.546203.209
40117.382197.968
41115.609192.928
42113.573189.301
43112.140186.161
44110.763182.009
45108.890178.293
46106.841174.063
47105.188170.437
48103.576165.600
49102.042161.906
50100.582158.046
5199.614154.557
5298.265151.154
5396.657146.997
5495.087143.309
5593.677139.246
5692.242134.798
5790.895132.082
5889.947129.314
5988.462126.398
6086.906122.409
6185.419118.673
6283.560115.928
6382.195113.325
6480.675110.248
6579.291107.812
6677.730105.335
6776.480103.033
6874.989100.045
6973.60696.994
7071.97494.807
7170.86491.832
7269.15289.459
7368.02386.688
7467.17784.221
7565.71481.498
7664.51179.074
7763.29076.442
7861.59774.020
7959.97971.706
8058.49668.684
8156.97865.852
8255.27063.164
8353.88460.120
8451.92957.576
8550.45455.373
8649.04352.410
8747.23249.358
8845.46446.900
8943.60743.951
9041.86940.668
9139.67537.599
9237.58533.965
9335.23430.076
9432.94925.307
9530.65421.859
9627.79617.848
9723.98311.895
9820.1026.634
9913.9910.285


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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