Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile32.91440.029
Median53.64981.210
Mean67.970125.855
75% Quartile86.567155.817
Interquartile Range53.653115.788

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1274.940772.121
2220.947557.661
3195.946490.455
4183.448441.092
5165.877407.610
6157.313364.970
7149.486337.483
8142.044313.483
9136.021291.034
10129.276275.084
11124.348262.404
12120.568248.959
13116.604239.126
14113.290229.575
15110.451219.413
16107.148211.585
17104.028202.704
18101.271193.935
1998.755186.440
2096.725180.678
2194.332175.227
2292.352169.290
2390.705165.218
2488.886159.398
2586.569155.819
2684.929152.778
2783.562148.220
2881.479144.661
2979.665140.591
3078.180136.193
3176.468132.243
3275.372128.300
3373.723125.235
3472.203122.256
3571.131118.232
3669.773115.069
3768.096111.959
3866.534109.099
3965.580106.780
4064.249103.770
4163.211100.901
4262.21898.802
4360.99097.050
4459.93094.669
4558.72392.552
4657.61590.209
4756.55788.108
4855.63285.400
4954.68283.375
5053.64981.210
5152.69979.266
5251.67677.340
5350.94175.113
5449.77173.008
5549.07470.896
5648.10368.369
5746.95566.892
5846.16765.412
5945.13863.801
6044.39861.710
6143.66259.647
6242.96058.157
6342.29056.777
6441.71055.098
6540.93053.802
6640.17952.487
6739.42651.268
6838.58149.692
6937.74048.086
7037.03646.940
7136.14945.385
7235.32444.149
7334.46342.709
7433.63741.432
7532.91040.027
7632.25338.781
7731.31537.433
7830.65336.195
7929.75635.018
8029.16933.486
8128.09132.057
8227.16130.706
8326.45629.183
8425.61227.916
8524.57026.823
8623.61025.360
8722.66423.860
8821.81822.659
8921.02021.225
9020.04319.638
9118.61218.165
9217.76916.432
9316.90014.594
9415.35912.363
9514.05510.766
9612.5108.929
9710.8896.241
989.3513.910
996.8111.158


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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