Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile29.03740.029
Median47.78481.210
Mean60.830125.855
75% Quartile77.845155.817
Interquartile Range48.809115.788

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1249.407772.121
2199.827557.661
3178.356490.455
4165.141441.092
5150.706407.610
6142.130364.970
7134.539337.483
8128.993313.483
9122.535291.034
10116.501275.084
11111.757262.404
12108.969248.959
13104.864239.126
14102.130229.575
1599.370219.413
1696.337211.585
1792.926202.704
1890.532193.935
1988.790186.440
2086.727180.678
2184.882175.227
2283.078169.290
2381.401165.218
2479.541159.398
2577.864155.819
2676.110152.778
2774.598148.220
2872.749144.661
2971.329140.591
3070.082136.193
3168.817132.243
3267.473128.300
3365.955125.235
3464.561122.256
3563.522118.232
3662.290115.069
3760.913111.959
3859.701109.099
3958.430106.780
4057.417103.770
4156.458100.901
4255.41698.802
4354.58297.050
4453.52994.669
4552.36192.552
4651.40090.209
4750.43788.108
4849.74885.400
4948.70683.375
5047.78481.210
5146.91979.266
5246.07577.340
5345.30275.113
5444.39973.008
5543.56170.896
5642.73968.369
5741.76566.892
5840.98265.412
5940.13063.801
6039.51861.710
6138.83059.647
6238.21958.157
6337.50756.777
6436.87755.098
6536.35153.802
6635.39852.487
6734.83851.268
6834.15849.692
6933.44448.086
7032.77646.940
7132.07445.385
7231.25444.149
7330.39842.709
7429.70741.432
7529.03540.027
7628.30038.781
7727.61137.433
7826.97036.195
7926.35635.018
8025.57933.486
8124.72132.057
8223.85430.706
8323.15929.183
8422.40627.916
8521.63226.823
8620.65925.360
8719.93223.860
8819.01222.659
8918.26321.225
9017.36219.638
9116.10018.165
9215.31816.432
9314.48514.594
9413.19512.363
9512.05910.766
9610.6418.929
979.1516.241
987.8013.910
995.4831.158


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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