Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile390.641423.873
Median617.462802.022
Mean712.541888.972
75% Quartile938.8841257.216
Interquartile Range548.243833.344

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12159.2142504.089
21917.5602244.836
31760.5902142.995
41644.7432059.116
51547.7131996.857
61485.5401909.978
71430.9741848.619
81383.5431790.982
91343.9911733.115
101300.5041689.354
111271.1531652.813
121238.3911612.198
131209.0441581.167
141185.3201549.859
151155.9651515.181
161129.2161487.438
171101.2241454.787
181080.4121421.229
191055.1811391.431
201031.7541367.770
211012.0911344.749
22991.9191318.932
23974.5301300.755
24957.1761274.068
25938.9751257.225
26924.1461242.648
27909.7671220.311
28894.9151202.454
29880.1881181.562
30865.4061158.396
31847.5351137.039
32835.5491115.183
33825.0811097.806
34814.4041080.574
35799.8251056.748
36788.3711037.556
37774.9751018.269
38762.8511000.163
39754.566985.201
40741.039965.411
41724.958946.141
42714.057931.779
43703.067919.622
44691.447902.841
45677.902887.664
46665.072870.582
47654.351855.000
48642.116834.536
49630.051818.954
50617.462802.022
51606.244786.575
52595.533771.043
53588.078752.783
54578.637735.232
55569.004717.339
56561.772695.538
57553.296682.602
58542.452669.496
59534.504655.071
60526.090636.082
61517.630617.077
62509.193603.174
63502.213590.171
64492.713574.185
65483.166561.730
66475.508548.993
67466.526537.095
68456.108521.579
69446.826505.645
70437.368494.184
71427.243478.532
72418.161466.013
73407.940451.356
74397.973438.290
75390.584423.850
76380.871410.995
77369.392397.041
78359.278384.212
79348.369371.984
80338.852356.057
81329.471341.198
82319.039327.173
83304.472311.393
84293.164298.305
85285.806287.060
86275.975272.075
87265.371256.829
88253.403244.713
89242.285230.375
90228.963214.705
91216.340200.352
92204.191183.768
93189.876166.545
94173.463146.242
95160.244132.164
96138.153116.473
97116.83494.617
9889.47976.836
9965.22957.427


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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