Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile554.205282.520
Median833.405589.726
Mean895.942681.693
75% Quartile1183.760986.502
Interquartile Range629.555703.982

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12150.1302091.935
21954.3091861.894
31846.5601771.531
41780.3231697.106
51714.6701641.867
61669.8131564.787
71636.7331510.352
81597.5811459.225
91553.3101407.899
101511.8391369.090
111478.6361336.689
121448.3981300.679
131424.0611273.172
141402.5851245.425
151375.0371214.696
161354.8531190.120
171327.4031161.202
181309.1791131.493
191290.6461105.122
201272.2561084.189
211252.7321063.830
221237.5131041.009
231216.6691024.947
241199.1491001.378
251183.930986.510
261165.164973.647
271147.311953.948
281134.465938.209
291120.704919.806
301104.147899.416
311086.176880.635
321070.853861.433
331053.530846.182
341039.351831.069
351027.969810.199
361012.845793.409
37996.117776.559
38980.469760.760
39967.047747.722
40957.367730.501
41942.776713.762
42932.852701.306
43919.274690.777
44907.277676.265
45897.755663.163
46883.448648.447
47871.149635.051
48856.393617.500
49845.606604.172
50833.405589.726
51822.979576.582
52815.723563.401
53806.478547.953
54794.891533.157
55787.067518.128
56773.158499.897
57760.100489.124
58747.312478.243
59737.353466.310
60725.297450.672
61716.212435.103
62703.138423.770
63692.920413.214
64680.431400.297
65669.605390.281
66658.576380.082
67646.049370.597
68635.175358.289
69624.737345.724
70613.403336.736
71603.017324.526
72593.589314.817
73580.182303.516
74570.548293.502
75554.148282.502
76538.277272.772
77524.102262.275
78512.197252.685
79499.179243.600
80488.686231.850
81477.990220.972
82466.234210.780
83454.357199.403
84436.751190.037
85424.608182.044
86409.836171.469
87394.912160.798
88381.446152.385
89368.242142.502
90349.153131.795
91335.403122.076
92317.530110.950
93303.53599.518
94284.65086.204
95258.14877.080
96232.72567.017
97211.45053.206
98184.17942.162
99133.71930.336


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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