Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile426.549282.326
Median698.058542.023
Mean777.036677.437
75% Quartile1045.943946.721
Interquartile Range619.393664.396

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12132.6592327.848
21958.8862029.794
31813.4711913.259
41729.8651817.625
51670.1291746.898
61604.4931648.652
71546.6361579.648
81492.7941515.177
91452.4561450.843
101410.8141402.491
111373.1071362.340
121336.2931317.972
131309.7801284.277
141279.8351250.474
151254.2381213.275
161227.2791183.714
171203.9001149.162
181180.7291113.941
191158.0971082.928
201136.5341058.489
211116.4901034.876
221099.5961008.601
231082.548990.236
241060.968963.483
251046.119946.730
261029.552932.316
271015.583910.390
281001.626893.003
29980.858872.824
30961.212850.664
31946.694830.439
32933.776809.949
33917.791793.812
34902.596777.946
35890.048756.242
36875.476738.956
37863.988721.765
38850.516705.794
39835.190692.721
40822.258675.602
41810.551659.125
42797.371646.969
43784.113636.763
44772.786622.802
45762.128610.300
46747.812596.375
47733.237583.806
48723.102567.492
49710.715555.217
50698.058542.023
51686.133530.116
52675.178518.267
53662.905504.497
54653.684491.421
55641.608478.250
56630.341462.417
57620.701453.133
58606.292443.808
59592.556433.639
60583.069420.401
61571.684407.316
62560.751397.845
63551.106389.062
64538.461378.363
65530.048370.100
66518.896361.713
67508.685353.936
68499.408343.872
69489.869333.628
70479.893326.315
71465.789316.395
72454.872308.517
73445.656299.352
74437.349291.233
75426.355282.312
76416.194274.412
77403.282265.879
78391.387258.067
79380.939250.649
80370.782241.023
81358.695232.072
82347.215223.644
83333.905214.179
84323.044206.336
85311.542199.599
86301.389190.618
87287.254181.466
88274.921174.178
89264.470165.525
90250.854156.024
91234.465147.268
92219.789137.072
93204.037126.370
94191.997113.565
95172.170104.537
96154.13494.297
97134.62679.642
98112.17267.281
9983.85153.170


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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