Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile33.42123.076
Median53.58846.563
Mean62.06461.653
75% Quartile81.05185.535
Interquartile Range47.62962.459

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1196.010240.570
2171.628205.610
3153.169192.049
4142.480180.984
5136.367172.845
6130.420161.613
7125.463153.784
8120.811146.520
9117.322139.327
10114.587133.960
11111.563129.531
12108.832124.669
13105.908120.999
14103.682117.339
15101.067113.337
1698.358110.176
1795.811106.505
1893.134102.789
1990.92099.540
2088.93896.994
2187.32894.549
2285.97291.843
2384.56989.961
2482.84887.235
2581.06185.536
2679.79584.080
2778.68881.876
2877.25780.136
2976.17278.126
3074.87475.931
3173.33473.938
3272.10871.929
3370.97870.354
3469.93268.812
3568.78266.713
3667.51765.049
3766.36663.401
3865.56161.876
3964.25260.633
4063.37659.010
4162.36257.455
4261.18356.311
4360.23655.353
4459.21254.047
4558.34752.880
4657.46551.584
4756.30650.418
4855.46548.909
4954.66347.777
5053.58846.563
5152.71245.469
5251.89944.384
5350.97143.126
5450.00641.933
5549.23940.734
5648.34139.296
5747.46038.455
5846.60937.610
5945.76936.691
6044.86935.495
6144.07034.315
6243.40733.461
6342.79532.670
6442.04831.707
6541.19030.964
6640.59230.210
6739.77129.511
6839.01028.607
6938.19127.687
7037.45227.030
7136.75026.139
7235.99425.431
7335.19624.607
7434.22623.877
7533.41223.075
7632.61922.364
7731.98921.596
7831.31220.892
7930.45720.222
8029.65619.353
8128.95418.544
8228.06617.781
8327.20616.922
8425.99416.210
8525.17115.596
8624.34514.778
8723.47213.941
8822.54213.273
8921.36812.479
9020.56811.603
9119.63810.794
9218.4739.847
9317.4558.849
9416.3257.647
9514.8696.794
9613.5925.821
9711.6984.414
9810.2263.213
997.5691.822


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence