Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River( Jun 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun106.955175.45613.56168.804239.388
Jun-Jul355.117600.08433.135249.2111334.802
Jun-Aug696.0611024.93449.459521.4312474.023

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101014.6801402.491
20777.8761058.489
30634.937850.664
40520.558675.602
50426.983542.023
60350.575420.401
70277.830326.315
80207.948241.023
90131.037156.024

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11706.1052327.848
21509.8182029.794
31383.2221913.259
41313.2151817.625
51251.7481746.898
61179.4791648.652
71137.5611579.648
81092.6461515.177
91047.7791450.843
101014.6801402.491
11981.1211362.340
12953.5741317.972
13925.8581284.277
14900.1491250.474
15876.1701213.275
16857.7711183.714
17834.8701149.162
18811.1341113.941
19793.7301082.928
20777.8761058.489
21761.8121034.876
22745.2961008.601
23729.817990.236
24712.910963.483
25698.587946.730
26686.323932.316
27669.594910.390
28658.094893.003
29646.958872.824
30634.937850.664
31623.805830.439
32606.845809.949
33595.014793.812
34581.416777.946
35571.675756.242
36561.214738.956
37550.224721.765
38540.704705.794
39529.518692.721
40520.558675.602
41511.016659.125
42501.070646.969
43491.673636.763
44482.116622.802
45471.835610.300
46461.632596.375
47452.181583.806
48443.391567.492
49437.527555.217
50426.983542.023
51417.910530.116
52409.401518.267
53402.882504.497
54393.791491.421
55386.086478.250
56378.857462.417
57370.780453.133
58364.674443.808
59357.308433.639
60350.575420.401
61343.309407.316
62333.323397.845
63326.591389.062
64319.060378.363
65310.648370.100
66302.448361.713
67297.737353.936
68292.323343.872
69284.608333.628
70277.830326.315
71269.302316.395
72263.062308.517
73256.887299.352
74251.289291.233
75244.073282.312
76236.872274.412
77229.854265.879
78223.303258.067
79215.089250.649
80207.948241.023
81200.596232.072
82192.289223.644
83186.240214.179
84178.465206.336
85170.758199.599
86163.354190.618
87154.948181.466
88148.366174.178
89139.320165.525
90131.037156.024
91121.850147.268
92113.818137.072
93105.377126.370
9495.803113.565
9586.120104.537
9675.36294.297
9763.53579.642
9851.37267.281
9933.31853.170


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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