Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River
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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River
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| Average (1959+) (GL) | Last year (2011) (GL) | Observed (2012) (GL) | Minimum (2006) (GL) | 10 yr average (2002+) (GL) | Maximum (1975) (GL) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep | 316.304 | 139.553 | 228.495 | 12.519 | 243.111 | 753.067 |
| Sep-Oct | 567.419 | 268.935 | 322.614 | 17.207 | 352.981 | 1586.223 |
| Sep-Nov | 685.499 | 364.555 | 368.150 | 19.312 | 454.438 | 2027.736 |
Notes:
- The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.
| Exceedance Prob. of Streamflow (%) | Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL) | Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1086.537 | 1369.090 |
| 20 | 866.052 | 1084.189 |
| 30 | 730.644 | 899.416 |
| 40 | 610.056 | 730.501 |
| 50 | 518.542 | 589.726 |
| 60 | 436.358 | 450.672 |
| 70 | 357.665 | 336.736 |
| 80 | 280.172 | 231.850 |
| 90 | 188.521 | 131.795 |
| Exceedance Prob. of Streamflow (%) | Streamflow Forecast (3 month total flow in GL) | Historical Reference (3 month total flow in GL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1692.589 | 2091.935 |
| 2 | 1499.509 | 1861.894 |
| 3 | 1397.007 | 1771.531 |
| 4 | 1331.890 | 1697.106 |
| 5 | 1271.751 | 1641.867 |
| 6 | 1228.750 | 1564.787 |
| 7 | 1185.546 | 1510.352 |
| 8 | 1149.728 | 1459.225 |
| 9 | 1124.378 | 1407.899 |
| 10 | 1086.537 | 1369.090 |
| 11 | 1058.718 | 1336.689 |
| 12 | 1031.882 | 1300.679 |
| 13 | 1014.715 | 1273.172 |
| 14 | 987.832 | 1245.425 |
| 15 | 962.478 | 1214.696 |
| 16 | 947.720 | 1190.120 |
| 17 | 929.340 | 1161.202 |
| 18 | 909.343 | 1131.493 |
| 19 | 883.380 | 1105.122 |
| 20 | 866.052 | 1084.189 |
| 21 | 849.715 | 1063.830 |
| 22 | 835.692 | 1041.009 |
| 23 | 821.611 | 1024.947 |
| 24 | 806.005 | 1001.378 |
| 25 | 794.621 | 986.510 |
| 26 | 781.046 | 973.647 |
| 27 | 766.283 | 953.948 |
| 28 | 752.970 | 938.209 |
| 29 | 742.707 | 919.806 |
| 30 | 730.644 | 899.416 |
| 31 | 714.334 | 880.635 |
| 32 | 703.732 | 861.433 |
| 33 | 691.099 | 846.182 |
| 34 | 677.214 | 831.069 |
| 35 | 665.665 | 810.199 |
| 36 | 654.674 | 793.409 |
| 37 | 640.168 | 776.559 |
| 38 | 631.210 | 760.760 |
| 39 | 619.153 | 747.722 |
| 40 | 610.056 | 730.501 |
| 41 | 599.774 | 713.762 |
| 42 | 591.503 | 701.306 |
| 43 | 582.159 | 690.777 |
| 44 | 571.110 | 676.265 |
| 45 | 560.639 | 663.163 |
| 46 | 551.648 | 648.447 |
| 47 | 542.943 | 635.051 |
| 48 | 535.094 | 617.500 |
| 49 | 527.249 | 604.172 |
| 50 | 518.542 | 589.726 |
| 51 | 510.273 | 576.582 |
| 52 | 502.235 | 563.401 |
| 53 | 491.576 | 547.953 |
| 54 | 485.180 | 533.157 |
| 55 | 478.808 | 518.128 |
| 56 | 470.075 | 499.897 |
| 57 | 461.410 | 489.124 |
| 58 | 454.783 | 478.243 |
| 59 | 445.797 | 466.310 |
| 60 | 436.358 | 450.672 |
| 61 | 429.387 | 435.103 |
| 62 | 421.523 | 423.770 |
| 63 | 413.849 | 413.214 |
| 64 | 405.795 | 400.297 |
| 65 | 397.714 | 390.281 |
| 66 | 387.962 | 380.082 |
| 67 | 380.204 | 370.597 |
| 68 | 372.716 | 358.289 |
| 69 | 364.791 | 345.724 |
| 70 | 357.665 | 336.736 |
| 71 | 350.403 | 324.526 |
| 72 | 341.719 | 314.817 |
| 73 | 335.278 | 303.516 |
| 74 | 328.699 | 293.502 |
| 75 | 320.194 | 282.502 |
| 76 | 311.840 | 272.772 |
| 77 | 303.216 | 262.275 |
| 78 | 297.347 | 252.685 |
| 79 | 288.809 | 243.600 |
| 80 | 280.172 | 231.850 |
| 81 | 270.723 | 220.972 |
| 82 | 262.912 | 210.780 |
| 83 | 255.837 | 199.403 |
| 84 | 245.090 | 190.037 |
| 85 | 233.821 | 182.044 |
| 86 | 225.548 | 171.469 |
| 87 | 218.893 | 160.798 |
| 88 | 209.504 | 152.385 |
| 89 | 198.841 | 142.502 |
| 90 | 188.521 | 131.795 |
| 91 | 178.527 | 122.076 |
| 92 | 169.038 | 110.950 |
| 93 | 157.230 | 99.518 |
| 94 | 145.984 | 86.204 |
| 95 | 132.207 | 77.080 |
| 96 | 117.426 | 67.017 |
| 97 | 105.336 | 53.206 |
| 98 | 89.790 | 42.162 |
| 99 | 61.155 | 30.336 |
About the historical and exceedance probablity product
- The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
- The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
- The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
- The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
- The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
- The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
- The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
- Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ
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