Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct250.912118.64883.9024.688108.796833.156
Oct-Nov368.832205.797127.2236.792209.4071274.669
Oct-Dec444.042279.419153.8288.298321.2471455.609

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10461.086959.579
20357.869718.881
30289.255569.284
40238.614440.594
50199.837341.502
60165.880251.992
70135.211184.535
80105.404125.968
9070.88671.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1806.8591586.789
2680.7441386.319
3622.9171307.685
4588.7311242.999
5558.5041195.049
6529.6451128.252
7510.2801081.181
8494.0351037.065
9476.482992.890
10461.086959.579
11448.832931.836
12435.119901.088
13421.245877.667
14410.390854.106
15400.786828.098
16391.979807.369
17382.910783.066
18375.333758.206
19367.477736.241
20357.869718.881
21350.148702.064
22342.512683.298
23337.065670.148
24330.247650.941
25322.969638.884
26316.733628.491
27309.657612.648
28302.511600.055
29295.968585.408
30289.255569.284
31282.189554.531
32278.065539.552
33272.619527.733
34268.115516.092
35262.715500.137
36257.429487.407
37252.822474.727
38247.730462.931
39243.327453.265
40238.614440.594
41234.408428.387
42230.140419.375
43225.975411.805
44222.065401.446
45218.148392.167
46214.290381.830
47211.207372.500
48207.397360.392
49203.692351.285
50199.837341.502
51196.550332.680
52192.380323.910
53189.194313.728
54186.346304.074
55182.236294.366
56178.634282.722
57175.210275.909
58171.943269.077
59168.370261.643
60165.880251.992
61162.952242.483
62160.063235.622
63157.064229.278
64153.807221.573
65150.944215.641
66147.794209.640
67144.360204.092
68141.339196.939
69138.734189.690
70135.211184.535
71132.458177.573
72129.213172.069
73125.633165.695
74122.774160.076
75119.830153.932
76116.648148.521
77113.495142.706
78111.221137.413
79108.407132.414
80105.404125.968
81102.278120.017
8299.075114.454
8395.856108.255
8492.269103.158
8589.45598.811
8686.38493.060
8782.40887.255
8878.79182.674
8974.97477.285
9070.88671.434
9166.69066.106
9263.76759.982
9359.89353.653
9455.17146.225
9551.08241.089
9647.03235.372
9740.44627.413
9832.96420.926
9924.31413.816


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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