Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov118.13998.76035.4462.105101.772349.715
Nov-Dec193.438177.11858.2383.610214.0851043.498
Nov-Jan225.230210.98466.3014.179253.3791261.292

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10181.886476.709
20140.515327.301
30115.734253.493
4097.640197.968
5083.437158.046
6071.167122.409
7058.48594.807
8046.91968.684
9032.81640.668

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1319.6741183.689
2275.623891.100
3253.170795.452
4238.508724.861
5222.272674.646
6210.451612.751
7201.475571.889
8193.418535.417
9187.269501.202
10181.886476.709
11175.981457.140
12170.711436.351
13165.544420.915
14160.081405.691
15156.185389.571
16152.521377.235
17149.111362.867
18145.972348.659
19143.108336.583
20140.515327.301
21137.804318.443
22134.773308.383
23132.429302.025
24130.173292.320
25127.966286.477
26125.389281.449
27122.654273.665
28120.056267.605
29118.071260.991
30115.734253.493
31113.607246.894
32111.443240.030
33109.549234.822
34107.909229.965
35106.295222.906
36104.647217.589
37102.700212.174
38100.817207.291
3999.097203.209
4097.640197.968
4195.877192.928
4294.411189.301
4392.905186.161
4491.417182.009
4589.979178.293
4688.537174.063
4787.225170.437
4885.972165.600
4984.549161.906
5083.437158.046
5182.224154.557
5280.681151.154
5379.433146.997
5478.390143.309
5577.248139.246
5676.075134.798
5774.766132.082
5873.572129.314
5972.323126.398
6071.167122.409
6169.799118.673
6268.271115.928
6366.966113.325
6465.821110.248
6564.858107.812
6663.742105.335
6762.488103.033
6861.098100.045
6959.69596.994
7058.48594.807
7157.26691.832
7255.99589.459
7355.06386.688
7454.11584.221
7553.21381.498
7652.25379.074
7751.08876.442
7849.90874.020
7948.62671.706
8046.91968.684
8145.74165.852
8244.32463.164
8343.22860.120
8441.68657.576
8540.03455.373
8638.65052.410
8737.43249.358
8836.10846.900
8934.46943.951
9032.81640.668
9130.88737.599
9229.59533.965
9327.46630.076
9425.45025.307
9523.24521.859
9620.81417.848
9717.13311.895
9814.0026.634
998.6790.285


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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