Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Mar25.107324.32015.4610.87859.34919.616
Mar-Apr51.497382.59933.8571.99885.11386.600
Mar-May114.284439.34557.29113.636114.759807.286

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10193.710
20133.909
30105.001
4083.519
5068.306
6054.930
7044.621
8035.058
9024.983

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1490.697
2365.175
3325.144
4295.483
5275.225
6249.246
7232.383
8217.576
9203.651
10193.710
11185.777
12177.335
13171.141
14165.106
15158.665
16153.690
17148.028
18142.421
19137.614
20133.909
21130.396
22126.562
23123.927
24120.152
25117.825
26115.846
27112.874
28110.549
29107.885
30105.001
31102.404
3299.807
3397.784
3495.815
3593.150
3691.051
3788.983
3887.078
3985.530
4083.519
4181.598
4280.189
4379.013
4477.412
4575.985
4674.405
4772.985
4871.150
4969.777
5068.306
5166.983
5265.670
5364.149
5462.708
5561.261
5659.525
5758.508
5857.488
5956.376
6054.930
6153.501
6252.466
6351.506
6450.336
6549.432
6648.513
6747.660
6846.555
6945.428
7044.621
7143.525
7242.652
7341.633
7440.729
7539.731
7638.844
7737.883
7836.999
7936.157
8035.058
8134.030
8233.057
8331.956
8431.038
8530.245
8629.180
8728.085
8827.205
8926.152
9024.983
9123.893
9222.607
9321.235
9419.560
9518.355
9616.959
9714.900
9813.096
9910.939


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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