Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May62.78656.74623.4348.87629.646720.686
May-Jun167.546164.07385.85619.05586.595844.859
May-Jul414.253522.083313.31035.422259.1441720.925

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10863.595900.411
20620.893615.668
30485.193467.007
40381.132355.366
50308.221277.589
60250.425211.389
70199.102162.554
80149.059119.595
9096.05877.563

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11751.3541820.368
21431.9161509.813
31284.6641390.879
41165.9511294.752
51095.8411224.686
61039.2951129.063
7981.5881063.257
8939.1961002.914
9897.902943.905
10863.595900.411
11824.638864.886
12793.401826.287
13770.543797.451
14746.640768.948
15720.468738.091
16693.194713.958
17671.762686.195
18652.940658.395
19635.349634.341
20620.893615.668
21605.274597.865
22589.789578.329
23573.820564.848
24558.642545.462
25545.086533.477
26531.450523.259
27520.365507.882
28506.686495.831
29496.748482.002
30485.193467.007
31471.736453.496
32459.666439.976
33448.433429.447
34438.064419.195
35429.104405.328
36418.093394.414
37408.021383.672
38398.339373.791
39389.229365.773
40381.132355.366
41373.534345.449
42366.158338.194
43360.227332.141
44351.983323.919
45345.045316.612
46336.766308.534
47329.698301.296
48321.238291.976
49314.714285.017
50308.221277.589
51302.717270.929
52297.342264.344
53290.665256.740
54284.939249.568
55279.992242.390
56274.504233.823
57269.381228.829
58264.133223.834
59257.760218.412
60250.425211.389
61245.005204.487
62240.762199.516
63235.245194.923
64229.323189.349
65224.365185.060
66218.650180.722
67214.077176.710
68208.844171.537
69203.724166.289
70199.102162.554
71195.120157.503
72190.070153.502
73185.604148.861
74178.876144.759
75173.645140.264
76167.983136.293
77162.802132.012
78158.264128.102
79153.316124.395
80149.059119.595
81143.804115.141
82138.856110.954
83133.861106.260
84129.462102.376
85124.03099.044
86119.49594.608
87112.70790.092
88107.41486.500
89101.23782.238
9096.05877.563
9191.20773.257
9285.49668.245
9379.19162.985
9473.11856.692
9564.93752.254
9657.63847.217
9750.17239.998
9842.27633.896
9932.70226.910


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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