Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct247.81983.902112.4714.688112.532833.156
Oct-Nov364.358127.223162.9306.792215.9971274.669
Oct-Dec438.667153.828196.9708.298329.8541455.609

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10593.573959.579
20485.637718.881
30400.797569.284
40338.820440.594
50288.589341.502
60244.433251.992
70204.243184.535
80159.564125.968
90111.17971.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1926.9351586.789
2831.6221386.319
3770.6141307.685
4725.0441242.999
5697.6111195.049
6673.0681128.252
7650.8111081.181
8629.1461037.065
9611.007992.890
10593.573959.579
11578.374931.836
12568.849901.088
13558.034877.667
14545.512854.106
15535.321828.098
16524.722807.369
17511.361783.066
18501.974758.206
19493.790736.241
20485.637718.881
21475.572702.064
22467.757683.298
23457.344670.148
24448.568650.941
25439.235638.884
26429.808628.491
27422.047612.648
28413.339600.055
29407.940585.408
30400.797569.284
31393.510554.531
32386.982539.552
33380.052527.733
34373.328516.092
35367.525500.137
36361.002487.407
37355.313474.727
38348.381462.931
39344.217453.265
40338.820440.594
41333.829428.387
42329.340419.375
43323.174411.805
44318.064401.446
45312.038392.167
46307.268381.830
47301.436372.500
48296.511360.392
49292.468351.285
50288.589341.502
51283.721332.680
52278.437323.910
53274.206313.728
54270.498304.074
55265.504294.366
56261.269282.722
57256.979275.909
58252.187269.077
59248.424261.643
60244.433251.992
61240.567242.483
62235.977235.622
63231.793229.278
64227.678221.573
65223.446215.641
66219.756209.640
67214.665204.092
68210.800196.939
69207.378189.690
70204.243184.535
71198.679177.573
72194.114172.069
73189.528165.695
74185.440160.076
75181.316153.932
76177.034148.521
77172.992142.706
78168.031137.413
79164.317132.414
80159.564125.968
81154.489120.017
82149.236114.454
83144.592108.255
84141.386103.158
85136.64698.811
86131.90093.060
87127.01187.255
88121.51482.674
89115.89277.285
90111.17971.434
91106.44066.106
9298.73859.982
9394.25453.653
9487.92246.225
9582.71841.089
9675.16235.372
9767.05827.413
9855.79820.926
9943.57313.816


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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