Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan31.1418.11111.7570.56939.834217.795
Jan-Feb56.82213.69319.1830.773106.029666.121
Jan-Mar81.75429.15429.7601.651166.638826.381

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1081.175133.960
2061.05496.994
3049.87675.931
4041.38559.010
5034.37646.563
6028.78135.495
7023.22927.030
8017.99819.353
9011.93011.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1150.669240.570
2128.570205.610
3112.993192.049
4104.778180.984
598.095172.845
694.426161.613
789.946153.784
886.659146.520
984.144139.327
1081.175133.960
1178.342129.531
1275.807124.669
1373.717120.999
1471.429117.339
1569.550113.337
1667.743110.176
1765.850106.505
1864.029102.789
1962.62299.540
2061.05496.994
2159.77594.549
2258.52291.843
2357.13289.961
2455.82287.235
2555.07485.536
2654.03884.080
2752.87581.876
2851.79180.136
2950.82178.126
3049.87675.931
3148.93773.938
3248.08071.929
3347.18370.354
3446.42668.812
3545.45966.713
3644.65765.049
3743.82663.401
3842.94761.876
3942.26960.633
4041.38559.010
4140.56557.455
4239.85956.311
4339.14955.353
4438.33554.047
4537.66652.880
4637.09551.584
4736.31950.418
4835.64748.909
4934.97147.777
5034.37646.563
5133.77545.469
5233.21144.384
5332.48343.126
5431.91941.933
5531.35440.734
5630.77639.296
5730.25238.455
5829.67137.610
5929.21636.691
6028.78135.495
6128.22634.315
6227.61233.461
6327.03332.670
6426.50731.707
6525.94730.964
6625.39630.210
6724.82529.511
6824.27628.607
6923.76927.687
7023.22927.030
7122.76326.139
7222.24725.431
7321.66924.607
7421.10123.877
7520.63723.075
7620.11722.364
7719.59421.596
7819.03220.892
7918.52620.222
8017.99819.353
8117.45618.544
8216.94217.781
8316.18516.922
8415.62016.210
8515.06415.596
8614.54114.778
8713.79613.941
8813.10013.273
8912.55112.479
9011.93011.603
9111.32510.794
9210.7289.847
9310.0038.849
949.2447.647
958.3046.794
967.3165.821
976.2524.414
984.9383.213
993.3101.822


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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