Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Feb25.6815.5827.4290.20466.195448.327
Feb-Mar50.61321.04318.0191.082126.804608.587
Feb-Apr76.85839.43840.6142.201153.613704.268

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1076.913118.810
2060.11183.957
3049.48166.407
4041.85853.010
5035.61443.249
6029.89734.423
7024.56927.497
8019.14520.852
9012.77313.599

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1150.921276.765
2122.751212.428
3111.950191.122
4103.663175.295
595.776163.978
690.788149.955
786.773140.650
883.368132.310
980.158124.454
1076.913118.810
1175.012114.288
1273.047109.471
1370.969105.885
1468.794102.341
1566.93898.580
1665.54895.695
1764.03192.327
1862.68788.990
1961.28786.147
2060.11183.957
2158.84681.864
2257.86279.483
2356.46477.976
2455.50175.672
2554.51274.282
2653.60973.085
2752.57271.230
2851.55869.783
2950.48868.202
3049.48166.407
3148.51464.824
3247.76063.175
3346.96261.922
3446.15860.753
3545.45059.050
3644.76357.766
3744.13656.456
3843.38355.273
3942.56154.283
4041.85853.010
4141.16451.784
4240.61650.901
4339.96750.136
4439.34449.122
4538.61348.214
4637.97547.180
4737.40246.292
4836.91945.106
4936.33144.198
5035.61443.249
5134.95842.390
5234.24941.551
5333.63740.525
5433.01039.614
5532.49338.608
5631.92937.505
5731.37336.831
5830.85636.143
5930.42235.417
6029.89734.423
6129.37733.491
6228.77732.805
6328.31132.154
6427.82631.383
6527.25830.772
6626.63030.150
6726.07829.571
6825.59328.819
6925.04228.049
7024.56927.497
7124.09426.745
7223.58326.145
7323.10825.442
7422.46824.816
7521.85124.124
7621.16123.507
7720.69022.836
7820.13422.218
7919.68621.626
8019.14520.852
8118.52820.125
8218.03919.435
8317.25218.651
8416.80817.994
8516.22817.425
8615.50716.658
8714.97515.865
8814.13115.226
8913.37314.457
9012.77313.599
9111.96412.795
9211.33611.839
9310.26510.813
949.4699.549
958.3348.631
967.3897.559
975.8955.957
984.3434.530
992.4852.792


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence