Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May62.07123.43434.2628.87630.354720.686
May-Jun166.06085.856187.16419.05588.785844.859
May-Jul412.418313.310592.56435.422261.5931720.925

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10986.316900.411
20720.952615.668
30569.108467.007
40449.720355.366
50365.254277.589
60298.103211.389
70237.305162.554
80177.828119.595
90114.81277.563

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11933.6821820.368
21617.4341509.813
31448.0391390.879
41323.0321294.752
51241.6961224.686
61178.2661129.063
71122.0991063.257
81068.0401002.914
91025.412943.905
10986.316900.411
11949.850864.886
12916.182826.287
13888.376797.451
14863.653768.948
15836.766738.091
16802.965713.958
17778.129686.195
18756.099658.395
19738.542634.341
20720.952615.668
21704.390597.865
22687.763578.329
23671.546564.848
24655.553545.462
25637.629533.477
26624.153523.259
27608.786507.882
28595.396495.831
29580.101482.002
30569.108467.007
31552.548453.496
32541.279439.976
33526.389429.447
34512.985419.195
35503.250405.328
36493.068394.414
37480.854383.672
38471.279373.791
39460.708365.773
40449.720355.366
41441.041345.449
42432.886338.194
43424.739332.141
44418.281323.919
45411.006316.612
46400.399308.534
47388.525301.296
48381.011291.976
49372.629285.017
50365.254277.589
51358.287270.929
52352.527264.344
53346.205256.740
54337.562249.568
55332.199242.390
56326.152233.823
57320.216228.829
58313.337223.834
59305.023218.412
60298.103211.389
61291.962204.487
62285.920199.516
63279.778194.923
64272.987189.349
65267.154185.060
66259.650180.722
67253.320176.710
68247.870171.537
69242.542166.289
70237.305162.554
71232.099157.503
72226.381153.502
73221.346148.861
74213.192144.759
75206.442140.264
76200.148136.293
77195.127132.012
78188.519128.102
79182.587124.395
80177.828119.595
81171.827115.141
82166.059110.954
83159.302106.260
84154.007102.376
85148.98999.044
86142.55494.608
87136.20390.092
88128.90486.500
89121.29482.238
90114.81277.563
91109.36473.257
92102.99268.245
9395.80362.985
9487.51456.692
9579.20952.254
9670.44647.217
9761.21839.998
9851.91633.896
9940.15726.910


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence