Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jul246.357227.454407.34119.573172.8071095.414
Jul-Aug586.596780.445572.14435.897431.4332234.635
Jul-Sep898.804983.611663.47448.417678.3552566.123

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101835.0991689.354
201518.2941367.770
301302.9631158.396
401144.716965.411
50987.812802.022
60854.330636.082
70729.770494.184
80588.826356.057
90424.862214.705

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12821.5512504.089
22531.7512244.836
32347.1522142.995
42231.5212059.116
52127.4331996.857
62038.5671909.978
71974.6501848.619
81926.7071790.982
91876.2921733.115
101835.0991689.354
111799.3321652.813
121757.4661612.198
131725.2731581.167
141696.2431549.859
151663.0441515.181
161637.4271487.438
171605.0481454.787
181580.2181421.229
191546.4891391.431
201518.2941367.770
211493.6951344.749
221468.6161318.932
231441.2051300.755
241414.8421274.068
251394.5741257.225
261373.3211242.648
271355.6201220.311
281337.0661202.454
291321.7831181.562
301302.9631158.396
311287.0721137.039
321270.6811115.183
331256.2731097.806
341237.9711080.574
351222.3971056.748
361208.3081037.556
371191.0691018.269
381172.0961000.163
391159.371985.201
401144.716965.411
411123.188946.141
421108.526931.779
431093.670919.622
441075.042902.841
451057.890887.664
461044.332870.582
471027.929855.000
481016.448834.536
491000.280818.954
50987.812802.022
51972.752786.575
52959.477771.043
53947.445752.783
54932.301735.232
55923.004717.339
56911.442695.538
57897.814682.602
58884.579669.496
59869.100655.071
60854.330636.082
61842.169617.077
62829.250603.174
63815.268590.171
64804.041574.185
65791.044561.730
66779.579548.993
67764.160537.095
68752.193521.579
69743.051505.645
70729.770494.184
71718.494478.532
72705.740466.013
73692.069451.356
74677.765438.290
75662.827423.850
76653.533410.995
77638.237397.041
78621.700384.212
79608.212371.984
80588.826356.057
81573.681341.198
82557.573327.173
83540.448311.393
84523.697298.305
85507.420287.060
86492.430272.075
87476.709256.829
88458.236244.713
89442.787230.375
90424.862214.705
91404.423200.352
92381.988183.768
93358.379166.545
94338.262146.242
95317.614132.164
96275.804116.473
97248.50894.617
98210.21076.836
99157.58457.427


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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