Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Jan27.9837.88225.7790.56916.951113.461
Jan-Feb45.79211.77337.4170.77336.443176.749
Jan-Mar62.00416.21781.8151.65147.192236.206

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1075.153133.960
2056.30796.994
3045.63275.931
4037.76359.010
5031.16346.563
6026.12435.495
7020.91727.030
8016.11619.353
9010.58311.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1141.893240.570
2120.082205.610
3106.330192.049
498.075180.984
591.608172.845
688.096161.613
783.431153.784
880.334146.520
977.988139.327
1075.153133.960
1172.509129.531
1269.816124.669
1368.013120.999
1465.586117.339
1564.049113.337
1662.650110.176
1760.794106.505
1859.044102.789
1957.54799.540
2056.30796.994
2154.97294.549
2253.57091.843
2352.49189.961
2451.31787.235
2550.54085.536
2649.55184.080
2748.54581.876
2847.43680.136
2946.55278.126
3045.63275.931
3144.81173.938
3244.00471.929
3343.16170.354
3442.38668.812
3541.60266.713
3640.72865.049
3739.98663.401
3839.19561.876
3938.58560.633
4037.76359.010
4137.03457.455
4236.27256.311
4335.64655.353
4434.82954.047
4534.27552.880
4633.69351.584
4733.07950.418
4832.28248.909
4931.77147.777
5031.16346.563
5130.60545.469
5230.06744.384
5329.49243.126
5428.97841.933
5528.40740.734
5627.90839.296
5727.43338.455
5826.94737.610
5926.51836.691
6026.12435.495
6125.59734.315
6225.08333.461
6324.52832.670
6423.95531.707
6523.42930.964
6622.93730.210
6722.42329.511
6821.91828.607
6921.43727.687
7020.91727.030
7120.51526.139
7220.05325.431
7319.51124.607
7418.95323.877
7518.53623.075
7618.12722.364
7717.68421.596
7817.05120.892
7916.58720.222
8016.11619.353
8115.59918.544
8215.13817.781
8314.52216.922
8414.00416.210
8513.48315.596
8612.93714.778
8712.35513.941
8811.63913.273
8911.14212.479
9010.58311.603
9110.05110.794
929.4189.847
938.7998.849
948.0907.647
957.2886.794
966.3445.821
975.2744.414
984.0603.213
992.6101.822


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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