Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Jan27.94125.779217.7950.56917.449113.461
Jan-Feb45.63137.417666.1210.77337.246176.749
Jan-Mar62.38581.815826.3811.65150.930236.206

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10256.251133.960
20217.76996.994
30193.53075.931
40173.86559.010
50155.46446.563
60137.32835.495
70120.09027.030
80101.80819.353
9078.18811.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1397.101240.570
2350.613205.610
3322.363192.049
4306.452180.984
5295.759172.845
6285.020161.613
7276.906153.784
8269.393146.520
9262.850139.327
10256.251133.960
11251.141129.531
12247.450124.669
13242.595120.999
14238.052117.339
15234.863113.337
16230.868110.176
17227.134106.505
18224.152102.789
19221.06199.540
20217.76996.994
21214.76594.549
22212.19691.843
23209.85789.961
24207.33987.235
25204.92985.536
26202.56584.080
27200.42181.876
28197.85880.136
29195.63978.126
30193.53075.931
31191.37873.938
32189.42171.929
33187.47470.354
34185.03168.812
35183.17466.713
36181.37065.049
37179.20263.401
38177.56161.876
39175.68060.633
40173.86559.010
41171.81357.455
42169.89556.311
43168.20455.353
44166.12254.047
45163.93752.880
46162.45051.584
47160.55450.418
48158.76248.909
49156.76747.777
50155.46446.563
51153.39145.469
52151.96744.384
53149.80343.126
54147.99041.933
55145.55440.734
56144.15839.296
57142.09738.455
58140.56437.610
59138.83036.691
60137.32835.495
61135.51534.315
62133.98533.461
63132.04932.670
64130.48631.707
65128.58030.964
66126.88430.210
67125.06829.511
68123.40428.607
69121.89127.687
70120.09027.030
71117.97326.139
72116.31025.431
73114.65524.607
74113.00923.877
75111.39523.075
76109.67322.364
77107.98921.596
78106.10120.892
79104.20620.222
80101.80819.353
8199.04218.544
8297.39217.781
8395.34516.922
8492.83216.210
8590.83315.596
8688.84714.778
8786.10013.941
8883.50113.273
8980.95712.479
9078.18811.603
9175.07910.794
9270.8119.847
9367.6298.849
9463.8367.647
9560.0916.794
9655.3765.821
9751.2264.414
9844.7043.213
9938.9971.822


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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