Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Ovens River to Murray River ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan31.523217.79533.8660.56937.086217.795
Jan-Feb57.339666.12172.4640.77399.938666.121
Jan-Mar76.800826.381396.7841.651128.004826.381

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10120.682133.960
2094.40396.994
3079.52975.931
4067.75959.010
5057.34946.563
6048.28835.495
7040.33627.030
8032.06719.353
9022.32311.603

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1202.978240.570
2179.898205.610
3160.694192.049
4149.775180.984
5142.974172.845
6136.818161.613
7132.146153.784
8127.032146.520
9123.473139.327
10120.682133.960
11118.060129.531
12114.541124.669
13111.960120.999
14109.484117.339
15107.134113.337
16104.322110.176
17101.409106.505
1898.499102.789
1996.15499.540
2094.40396.994
2192.69394.549
2291.19791.843
2389.85289.961
2488.04587.235
2586.44985.536
2684.89784.080
2783.49981.876
2882.16580.136
2980.96878.126
3079.52975.931
3178.03473.938
3276.88271.929
3375.68470.354
3474.54768.812
3573.45466.713
3672.02665.049
3770.97963.401
3869.68161.876
3968.69160.633
4067.75959.010
4166.44857.455
4265.46456.311
4364.43955.353
4463.45154.047
4562.26252.880
4661.28751.584
4760.27150.418
4859.41048.909
4958.60547.777
5057.34946.563
5156.43045.469
5255.80644.384
5354.62443.126
5453.63041.933
5552.77740.734
5651.84939.296
5750.88138.455
5849.95637.610
5949.08836.691
6048.28835.495
6147.36634.315
6246.49633.461
6345.87432.670
6445.20231.707
6544.18830.964
6643.56130.210
6742.80329.511
6841.86528.607
6941.13827.687
7040.33627.030
7139.58626.139
7238.79825.431
7337.88624.607
7436.94123.877
7535.94823.075
7635.15022.364
7734.55821.596
7833.72120.892
7932.86420.222
8032.06719.353
8131.26818.544
8230.27617.781
8329.43316.922
8428.22516.210
8527.22215.596
8626.32914.778
8725.29313.941
8824.45613.273
8923.19512.479
9022.32311.603
9121.30910.794
9220.2069.847
9318.9038.849
9417.7497.647
9516.3576.794
9614.8955.821
9712.9024.414
9811.2513.213
998.4171.822


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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