Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Sep 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.46945.276
2012.29133.787
309.70926.543
407.66420.237
506.21715.361
604.93211.003
703.8487.805
802.7925.142
901.6812.811

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.11774.832
229.67165.410
326.49361.710
424.70858.665
523.02756.405
621.53653.255
720.26551.032
819.29948.946
918.45046.855
1017.46945.276
1116.79243.959
1216.25942.498
1315.57341.384
1414.85540.261
1514.32239.020
1613.86538.030
1713.46636.867
1813.03435.676
1912.73334.621
2012.29133.787
2111.95432.977
2211.67332.072
2311.41931.437
2411.08630.509
2510.83129.925
2610.57729.421
2710.33628.652
2810.11428.041
299.90927.328
309.70926.543
319.49325.823
329.23525.091
339.04924.513
348.84123.943
358.61223.162
368.42822.537
378.21221.915
388.02021.335
397.84120.860
407.66420.237
417.49819.636
427.37119.192
437.21618.820
447.05918.310
456.91617.853
466.77917.344
476.62416.885
486.46716.289
496.33315.842
506.21715.361
516.09114.929
525.98014.499
535.83314.001
545.70913.529
555.55613.056
565.43012.489
575.29012.158
585.15611.828
595.03111.468
604.93211.003
614.78610.546
624.70610.218
634.5809.915
644.4639.548
654.3439.266
664.2528.982
674.1248.721
684.0498.385
693.9418.045
703.8487.805
713.7527.482
723.6797.228
733.5756.934
743.4816.677
753.3566.397
763.2386.152
773.1225.889
783.0555.652
792.9165.428
802.7925.142
812.6774.879
822.5724.636
832.4864.366
842.3804.146
852.2513.959
862.1423.714
872.0343.468
881.9223.276
891.8023.052
901.6812.811
911.5482.593
921.4192.347
931.3012.095
941.1411.804
950.9591.606
960.7611.390
970.5251.096
980.2990.862
990.0000.616


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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