Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Jun 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.06853.037
2017.56638.661
3013.85830.303
4011.21623.531
509.13318.554
607.38314.170
705.78410.871
804.2907.945
902.6055.084

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
149.74993.070
241.14280.083
336.56675.019
433.15970.873
530.81967.812
629.11663.574
727.82960.606
826.41057.843
925.14455.095
1024.06853.037
1123.21351.334
1222.51649.459
1321.69448.039
1420.97846.620
1520.20645.063
1619.60443.831
1719.01842.396
1818.45240.940
1917.99339.663
2017.56638.661
2117.22737.696
2216.83936.627
2316.38035.882
2415.96034.802
2515.55534.128
2615.17933.549
2714.84732.673
2814.54831.980
2914.21931.179
3013.85830.303
3113.65829.507
3213.39328.704
3313.11328.074
3412.87127.457
3512.56826.617
3612.31825.950
3711.99525.290
3811.72624.679
3911.45524.181
4011.21623.531
4110.97722.908
4210.77122.450
4310.55422.066
4410.33921.543
4510.15321.077
469.92020.559
479.71420.092
489.49919.490
499.33119.038
509.13318.554
518.93018.119
528.76917.687
538.59617.186
548.41116.713
558.22716.238
568.07715.669
577.88515.336
587.73815.003
597.61614.640
607.38314.170
617.22313.706
627.06613.372
636.87913.062
646.71512.686
656.55612.397
666.39812.103
676.26611.831
686.06911.481
695.94311.125
705.78410.871
715.62710.528
725.50510.256
735.3299.940
745.2089.660
755.0389.354
764.8849.083
774.7248.792
784.5808.525
794.4238.272
804.2907.945
814.0797.641
823.9577.356
833.8257.036
843.6896.771
853.5186.544
863.3356.242
873.1875.935
882.9815.691
892.8035.401
902.6055.084
912.4274.793
922.2304.454
932.0224.099
941.7893.675
951.5263.377
961.2723.040
970.9642.559
980.5832.155
990.0001.696


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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