Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Feb 2018 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.6548.117
203.3434.883
302.6283.468
402.0672.509
501.6961.885
601.3641.380
701.0731.027
800.7910.727
900.5060.446

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.44424.597
28.59118.037
37.10715.753
46.46614.044
55.92912.825
65.63311.327
75.33410.347
85.1359.482
94.9198.682
104.6548.117
114.4377.672
124.2647.205
134.1346.862
143.9796.529
153.8726.180
163.7435.917
173.6255.614
183.5325.318
193.4205.071
203.3434.883
213.2634.706
223.1644.507
233.0904.382
243.0264.194
252.9424.082
262.8743.987
272.8033.840
282.7473.727
292.6913.605
302.6283.468
312.5573.349
322.4883.227
332.4383.135
342.3813.050
352.3322.928
362.2782.837
372.2402.745
382.1822.663
392.1212.595
402.0672.509
412.0312.427
421.9842.369
431.9432.318
441.9042.253
451.8592.194
461.8232.128
471.7862.072
481.7561.998
491.7221.943
501.6961.885
511.6641.833
521.6211.783
531.5851.723
541.5531.670
551.5231.612
561.4921.550
571.4631.512
581.4241.474
591.3941.434
601.3641.380
611.3361.330
621.3141.294
631.2831.260
641.2561.220
651.2251.189
661.1901.157
671.1611.128
681.1291.091
691.0931.054
701.0731.027
711.0450.991
721.0220.963
730.9990.930
740.9680.901
750.9340.870
760.9090.842
770.8810.812
780.8460.785
790.8160.759
800.7910.727
810.7590.696
820.7420.668
830.7170.636
840.6920.610
850.6630.587
860.6350.558
870.6100.528
880.5760.504
890.5350.476
900.5060.446
910.4770.418
920.4410.386
930.3940.352
940.3510.312
950.3160.285
960.2660.254
970.2100.210
980.1390.173
990.0510.132


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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