Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic( Nov 2017 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.03313.653
203.1749.205
302.6787.056
402.2925.439
501.9834.304
601.7303.292
701.4542.525
801.1891.804
900.8801.043

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.92531.873
25.98926.206
35.46222.945
45.07720.938
54.82319.075
64.61117.691
74.44616.400
84.29715.248
94.16614.322
104.03313.653
113.89813.056
123.79112.487
133.70412.032
143.61411.499
153.53111.036
163.47710.620
173.39410.236
183.3219.832
193.2379.503
203.1749.205
213.1118.961
223.0608.671
233.0088.466
242.9598.202
252.9078.031
262.8587.886
272.8107.650
282.7677.451
292.7207.266
302.6787.056
312.6386.867
322.5886.665
332.5466.523
342.5166.370
352.4756.174
362.4436.023
372.4005.860
382.3695.713
392.3255.585
402.2925.439
412.2495.306
422.2225.193
432.1885.110
442.1564.996
452.1254.877
462.0934.761
472.0604.646
482.0334.513
492.0124.409
501.9834.304
511.9514.206
521.9294.113
531.9013.984
541.8753.886
551.8543.761
561.8283.648
571.8063.573
581.7853.493
591.7583.409
601.7303.292
611.7033.191
621.6693.116
631.6423.039
641.6152.954
651.5892.889
661.5592.819
671.5312.746
681.5062.672
691.4782.587
701.4542.525
711.4302.443
721.3982.377
731.3722.302
741.3482.233
751.3202.158
761.2922.091
771.2712.016
781.2471.951
791.2251.888
801.1891.804
811.1571.723
821.1281.652
831.0961.567
841.0721.500
851.0491.441
861.0191.359
870.9921.278
880.9511.211
890.9141.128
900.8801.043
910.8410.960
920.7920.864
930.7610.761
940.7110.635
950.6660.544
960.5990.438
970.5340.283
980.4480.147
990.3310.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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