Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic


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Product list for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic



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Exceedance probability for Jingellic Creek at Jingellic ( Jan 2017 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.9078.792
204.2385.219
303.2793.630
402.6252.561
502.1121.875
601.7091.330
701.3670.956
801.0040.645
900.6220.363

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.61224.020
210.32718.490
39.19516.428
48.53414.824
57.77113.644
67.27312.152
76.77011.150
86.45510.248
96.1939.399
105.9078.792
115.6958.309
125.4617.799
135.2617.423
145.0637.055
154.9406.668
164.8026.375
174.6436.037
184.5245.707
194.3775.429
204.2385.219
214.1235.020
224.0344.796
233.9404.656
243.8324.445
253.7194.319
263.6124.212
273.5374.047
283.4323.920
293.3553.783
303.2793.630
313.2083.496
323.1303.359
333.0713.257
343.0143.162
352.9483.026
362.8762.924
372.8202.822
382.7622.732
392.6882.656
402.6252.561
412.5632.470
422.5062.406
432.4592.350
442.4092.278
452.3692.214
462.3262.141
472.2642.080
482.2181.999
492.1721.938
502.1121.875
512.0681.819
522.0181.765
531.9801.699
541.9341.642
551.8961.579
561.8571.512
571.8211.471
581.7871.430
591.7511.388
601.7091.330
611.6841.277
621.6461.239
631.6091.202
641.5791.160
651.5441.127
661.5081.094
671.4641.063
681.4341.024
691.4020.984
701.3670.956
711.3310.919
721.2920.889
731.2580.855
741.2210.825
751.1830.793
761.1530.764
771.1170.733
781.0770.705
791.0430.679
801.0040.645
810.9670.614
820.9390.585
830.8990.553
840.8640.527
850.8260.504
860.7840.474
870.7400.444
880.7060.421
890.6660.393
900.6220.363
910.5920.335
920.5580.304
930.5200.271
940.4710.233
950.4150.206
960.3620.176
970.3020.135
980.2320.101
990.1480.063


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The exceedance probability is the likelihood that a streamflow volume, shown on the vertical axis, will be exceeded for the given location and three month period.
  4. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  5. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by station number in brackets e.g. (915011A).
  6. The streamflow data used for new forecasts are from near real-time data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  7. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the historical reference period.
  8. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as: less than 5 very low skill, 5-15 low skill, 15-30 moderate skill, greater than 30 high skill.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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