Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.49935.428
2032.76527.808
3028.45822.985
4024.93518.706
5022.11415.258
6019.51011.957
7016.8969.296
8014.1096.820
9010.6974.328

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.64355.120
252.35248.831
348.93846.363
446.85944.333
545.40442.828
644.07440.731
742.46639.252
841.17337.866
940.38336.476
1039.49935.428
1138.51434.554
1237.74733.584
1336.82032.845
1436.25032.101
1535.70631.278
1635.03630.622
1734.46029.851
1833.92929.061
1933.35128.362
2032.76527.808
2132.25427.271
2231.78126.670
2331.26126.249
2430.80225.631
2530.38025.243
2630.01524.908
2729.65124.395
2829.24923.987
2928.83823.511
3028.45822.985
3128.09122.502
3227.73222.010
3327.28521.621
3426.83521.236
3526.49520.707
3626.17520.282
3725.90519.858
3825.62919.461
3925.26219.135
4024.93518.706
4124.65418.290
4224.39717.981
4324.10317.721
4423.81117.364
4523.51117.043
4623.24016.683
4722.95116.356
4822.68015.930
4922.38615.607
5022.11415.258
5121.79514.942
5221.51614.626
5321.26414.257
5420.98313.904
5520.71713.547
5620.53213.115
5720.32612.861
5819.98412.605
5919.78012.324
6019.51011.957
6119.26711.592
6219.01911.327
6318.74211.080
6418.50410.779
6518.25510.545
6617.98210.307
6717.76210.086
6817.4609.799
6917.1319.506
7016.8969.296
7116.6629.011
7216.3428.784
7316.1058.519
7415.8578.284
7515.5898.025
7615.3607.795
7714.9937.546
7814.6967.318
7914.3757.102
8014.1096.820
8113.8406.558
8213.4706.311
8313.1966.033
8412.8125.803
8512.4885.606
8612.1415.342
8711.8145.073
8811.4464.859
8911.0884.606
9010.6974.328
9110.3884.072
9210.0243.774
939.5753.462
949.0433.091
958.5332.830
968.0752.536
977.2922.118
986.4851.769
995.3081.375


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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