Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Return to catchment list
Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.14129.548
2020.89922.966
3018.32818.906
4016.01215.389
5014.27812.609
6012.7099.971
7011.1567.836
809.4145.810
907.4783.676

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.03947.050
234.15341.420
331.93339.218
430.60137.411
529.37436.074
628.29834.215
727.35732.909
826.44531.687
925.79530.467
1025.14129.548
1124.58828.785
1224.13727.940
1323.55427.298
1423.07226.653
1522.64125.941
1622.29725.375
1721.96424.712
1821.60724.035
1921.22123.438
2020.89922.966
2120.57922.509
2220.19621.999
2319.95921.643
2419.69821.122
2519.51120.795
2619.27720.513
2719.03820.083
2818.83219.741
2918.60719.344
3018.32818.906
3118.03518.506
3217.78218.098
3317.51117.777
3417.23117.459
3517.00117.024
3616.77816.676
3716.62816.328
3816.40716.005
3916.18815.739
4016.01215.389
4115.83615.052
4215.62214.802
4315.45514.591
4415.27114.302
4515.12014.043
4614.94713.753
4714.74913.490
4814.59913.147
4914.43012.888
5014.27812.609
5114.08412.356
5213.95912.103
5313.78611.807
5413.62911.526
5513.47111.240
5613.31410.896
5713.17010.693
5813.02610.488
5912.89610.264
6012.7099.971
6112.5709.679
6212.4159.468
6312.2529.270
6412.1309.029
6511.9498.841
6611.7958.651
6711.6298.473
6811.4638.242
6911.2988.006
7011.1567.836
7111.0007.606
7210.8837.422
7310.7317.206
7410.5777.015
7510.3966.803
7610.2296.615
7710.0216.411
789.7986.223
799.6046.044
809.4145.810
819.2255.591
829.0845.384
838.9425.150
848.7404.955
858.5424.786
868.3424.561
878.1484.329
887.9614.143
897.7293.921
907.4783.676
917.1933.448
926.8943.180
936.6202.897
946.3492.553
955.9272.308
965.6012.027
975.2871.619
984.7561.267
994.0450.857


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence