Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.0948.002
204.9465.431
304.3024.174
403.7713.237
503.2962.573
602.9161.988
702.5661.538
802.1621.120
901.6830.682

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.29919.728
28.86915.023
38.16513.441
47.52912.244
57.18411.416
66.95010.341
76.6889.637
86.4589.014
96.2888.425
106.0948.002
115.9487.664
125.8147.303
135.6577.037
145.5296.778
155.4106.501
165.3046.286
175.2126.042
185.1325.800
195.0325.592
204.9465.431
214.8575.279
224.7855.112
234.7144.998
244.6574.834
254.5924.733
264.5324.647
274.4704.517
284.4014.416
294.3474.300
304.3024.174
314.2264.061
324.1733.948
334.1273.860
344.0723.774
354.0253.658
363.9763.566
373.9173.476
383.8663.393
393.8263.325
403.7713.237
413.7313.153
423.6903.092
433.6373.040
443.5892.970
453.5352.908
463.4852.839
473.4292.777
483.3882.697
493.3502.637
503.2962.573
513.2562.515
523.2142.457
533.1762.391
543.1452.328
553.1022.265
563.0682.189
573.0342.144
582.9992.100
592.9642.051
602.9161.988
612.8851.926
622.8481.880
632.8051.838
642.7701.787
652.7361.748
662.6981.708
672.6691.670
682.6301.622
692.6031.573
702.5661.538
712.5301.490
722.4871.452
732.4441.407
742.4011.368
752.3601.324
762.3201.286
772.2741.244
782.2361.205
792.2061.168
802.1621.120
812.1141.076
822.0691.033
832.0200.985
841.9800.945
851.9310.911
861.8860.864
871.8380.817
881.7900.778
891.7370.733
901.6830.682
911.6130.634
921.5470.578
931.4720.519
941.3880.446
951.3040.394
961.2170.333
971.1110.244
980.9980.166
990.7990.073


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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