Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.0176.648
203.0604.353
302.4873.288
402.0832.521
501.7401.994
601.4641.542
701.1991.204
800.9490.899
900.6470.590

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.14019.176
26.77713.703
35.90312.006
45.37810.767
55.0729.929
64.8038.867
74.5508.186
84.3557.593
94.1717.040
104.0176.648
113.8676.338
123.7396.009
133.6405.769
143.5395.537
153.4425.290
163.3555.100
173.2584.885
183.1974.673
193.1274.492
203.0604.353
212.9834.222
222.9264.079
232.8643.981
242.8043.842
252.7573.756
262.6903.684
272.6463.575
282.5883.490
292.5373.393
302.4873.288
312.4313.194
322.3833.101
332.3483.028
342.3042.958
352.2552.862
362.2152.788
372.1752.714
382.1422.647
392.1132.592
402.0832.521
412.0432.454
422.0072.405
431.9682.364
441.9402.308
451.9012.258
461.8712.204
471.8402.155
481.8092.091
491.7752.044
501.7401.994
511.7061.949
521.6791.904
531.6531.852
541.6321.803
551.6031.754
561.5781.696
571.5461.662
581.5201.628
591.4931.590
601.4641.542
611.4391.495
621.4131.461
631.3861.429
641.3571.390
651.3331.361
661.3111.331
671.2851.303
681.2521.267
691.2231.230
701.1991.204
711.1781.169
721.1491.141
731.1241.108
741.1021.079
751.0751.047
761.0511.019
771.0220.988
780.9950.960
790.9730.934
800.9490.899
810.9180.867
820.8870.837
830.8510.803
840.8220.774
850.7990.750
860.7670.717
870.7410.684
880.7120.657
890.6850.625
900.6470.590
910.6100.558
920.5770.520
930.5380.479
940.5030.430
950.4690.395
960.4090.356
970.3490.297
980.2820.247
990.1730.189


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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