Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.774
2011.372
308.799
406.915
505.594
604.443
703.574
802.772
901.940

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.500
232.688
328.918
426.169
524.233
621.869
720.323
818.954
917.680
1016.774
1116.054
1215.293
1314.730
1414.178
1513.595
1613.152
1712.637
1812.130
1911.701
2011.372
2111.060
2210.706
2310.483
2410.143
259.940
269.765
279.495
289.285
299.057
308.799
318.572
328.337
338.160
347.994
357.755
367.575
377.392
387.228
397.090
406.915
416.746
426.626
436.521
446.383
456.260
466.120
476.001
485.842
495.720
505.594
515.480
525.369
535.234
545.115
554.983
564.840
574.753
584.664
594.571
604.443
614.324
624.237
634.155
644.058
653.981
663.903
673.831
683.737
693.642
703.574
713.481
723.408
733.322
743.246
753.162
763.088
773.007
782.934
792.863
802.772
812.686
822.605
832.514
842.438
852.372
862.284
872.194
882.122
892.035
901.940
911.851
921.746
931.634
941.499
951.402
961.290
971.125
980.982
990.813


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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