Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.40123.468
2019.65016.961
3016.51313.357
4014.18310.497
5012.3008.398
6010.5776.519
708.9595.063
807.3333.718
905.4452.320

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.66443.364
236.08636.707
333.47134.152
431.02832.082
529.18030.568
628.00728.494
726.89927.058
825.90025.735
925.05424.434
1024.40123.468
1123.76222.676
1223.22221.809
1322.71121.158
1422.28120.512
1521.74919.807
1621.29219.253
1720.87718.611
1820.38417.965
1919.97317.401
2019.65016.961
2119.29616.539
2218.93916.073
2318.56815.750
2418.30515.283
2518.00314.992
2617.70614.744
2717.37714.368
2817.08814.071
2916.80713.729
3016.51313.357
3116.27713.019
3215.99712.678
3315.76012.412
3415.54912.151
3515.27311.797
3615.06011.516
3714.84611.238
3814.60410.981
3914.34510.771
4014.18310.497
4113.96210.235
4213.71810.042
4313.5429.881
4413.3139.661
4513.1529.464
4612.9779.246
4712.8179.049
4812.6458.794
4912.4608.603
5012.3008.398
5112.1548.213
5211.9578.030
5311.7837.817
5411.5687.615
5511.3567.411
5611.1737.167
5711.0157.024
5810.8856.880
5910.7576.723
6010.5776.519
6110.4316.318
6210.2396.172
6310.0826.036
649.9025.871
659.7455.743
669.5795.613
679.4295.493
689.2965.336
699.1195.177
708.9595.063
718.7974.909
728.6174.785
738.4514.642
748.2654.514
758.0934.374
767.9354.249
777.8004.114
787.6293.990
797.4803.872
807.3333.718
817.1613.574
826.9933.438
836.8213.284
846.6403.156
856.4593.046
866.3022.898
876.1242.747
885.9512.625
895.7332.480
905.4452.320
915.2332.170
925.0301.995
934.7621.808
944.5331.582
954.2501.421
963.8691.234
973.6010.962
983.1080.726
992.5180.448


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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