Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.43412.946
207.5149.144
306.3687.216
405.4365.736
504.7414.652
604.1213.667
703.5072.890
802.8752.140
902.1441.317

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.65029.891
213.84723.032
312.74220.749
411.84519.049
511.26717.831
610.88416.318
710.45715.313
810.08814.410
99.74113.559
109.43412.946
119.13512.454
128.90711.930
138.72011.540
148.49111.154
158.28310.743
168.13610.428
177.95610.061
187.8259.695
197.6739.384
207.5149.144
217.3898.915
227.2628.654
237.1348.488
247.0328.235
256.9178.083
266.7977.951
276.6907.747
286.5867.588
296.4737.414
306.3687.216
316.2587.042
326.1606.860
336.0686.721
345.9966.592
355.9196.404
365.8026.262
375.6986.117
385.6255.986
395.5205.877
405.4365.736
415.3435.600
425.2765.502
435.1965.417
445.1215.305
455.0465.204
464.9835.089
474.9274.990
484.8654.858
494.8034.757
504.7414.652
514.6764.556
524.6134.463
534.5564.348
544.4914.247
554.4344.134
564.3464.011
574.2913.936
584.2373.859
594.1723.778
604.1213.667
614.0523.562
623.9913.485
633.9393.412
643.8743.326
653.8233.257
663.7503.188
673.6783.123
683.6213.038
693.5712.952
703.5072.890
713.4492.805
723.3972.737
733.3412.658
743.2822.588
753.2092.510
763.1422.440
773.0662.364
782.9872.295
792.9352.228
802.8752.140
812.8042.058
822.7591.980
832.6891.891
842.6201.817
852.5361.752
862.4711.665
872.4051.575
882.3091.502
892.2311.414
902.1441.317
912.0721.225
921.9921.116
931.9080.998
941.7740.854
951.6720.748
961.5310.625
971.3760.440
981.2220.276
991.0070.074


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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