Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle


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Product list for Maragle Creek at Maragle



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Exceedance probability for Maragle Creek at Maragle ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.2655.538
200.8953.435
300.6772.495
400.5381.839
500.4261.398
600.3261.030
700.2400.764
800.1550.529
900.0620.299

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.97218.011
22.33712.427
32.04310.720
41.8319.502
51.6848.658
61.5617.646
71.4676.995
81.3836.427
91.3265.905
101.2655.538
111.1995.249
121.1504.946
131.1134.724
141.0744.508
151.0414.281
161.0104.110
170.9743.913
180.9433.720
190.9173.558
200.8953.435
210.8683.319
220.8393.187
230.8163.105
240.7922.980
250.7672.906
260.7522.842
270.7352.745
280.7122.669
290.6952.587
300.6772.495
310.6622.414
320.6482.331
330.6372.269
340.6262.211
350.6092.127
360.5902.065
370.5742.002
380.5641.945
390.5491.899
400.5381.839
410.5251.782
420.5101.741
430.4991.705
440.4871.659
450.4781.618
460.4651.572
470.4551.532
480.4461.479
490.4351.440
500.4261.398
510.4151.361
520.4041.325
530.3951.281
540.3841.243
550.3761.201
560.3661.155
570.3581.128
580.3481.099
590.3371.070
600.3261.030
610.3180.993
620.3080.966
630.2990.941
640.2900.911
650.2820.887
660.2740.863
670.2650.841
680.2570.813
690.2470.784
700.2400.764
710.2310.736
720.2240.714
730.2160.689
740.2060.667
750.1980.642
760.1880.620
770.1800.597
780.1710.575
790.1640.555
800.1550.529
810.1470.505
820.1390.482
830.1310.456
840.1250.435
850.1140.417
860.1040.392
870.0920.368
880.0820.348
890.0720.324
900.0620.299
910.0490.275
920.0390.248
930.0260.219
940.0140.184
950.0000.159
960.0000.132
970.0000.092
980.0000.058
990.0000.019


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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